Nasty numbers for the Left

KEVIN RUDD may be the most popular Opposition leader in the 35-year history of opinion polling in this country, but yesterday's inflation report shows that John Howard's luck has not deserted him. With consumer prices rising a scant 0.1 per cent in the first three months of the year, annualised inflation was 2.4 per cent, within the Reserve Bank's mandated maximum of 3 per cent. And the more important measure, underlying inflation, which takes out volatile short-term movements, rose by 0.5 per cent or an annualised 2.7 per cent, confirming that inflationary pressures are easing. This means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the months ahead. How unlikely? The futures market yesterday put the chance of a rate rise next month at just 3 per cent.

This, in turn, gives John Howard green lights as far as the eye can see down the politico-economic highway leading to this year's election. First, it gives the Government a green light to hand out tax cuts in next month's budget. If the Reserve Bank's governor, Glenn Stevens, had his finger hovering over the red button marked "rates up" Howard and Peter Costello would be accused of economic recklessness for handing out big tax cuts. Tax cuts, by fuelling spending, can increase inflationary pressures and prompt the bank to lift rates. That risk has now fallen away. If the Government had any hesitation, it has been removed by the inflation report.

Second, Howard has a green light for other spending measures as he campaigns for re-election, without bringing down upon the Government's head the accusation of irresponsibility. The outlook is sufficiently benign that Costello felt emboldened to forecast the next published annualised inflation rate would have a one in front of it, not a two.

Finally, the inflation figures give Howard the green light to go to the election with one of his most vital political credentials - as a better economic manager than Kevin Rudd - intact. On the face of it, it is extraordinary. Howard promised at the last election to keep rates "at record lows". As soon as he was re-elected, the Reserve Bank raised rates four times.

Yet somehow polling continues to show Howard well ahead of Rudd on who can better manage the economy. And with no further rate rises in prospect between here and the election, his grip on that title now seems unshakeable.

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Melbourne's trains -- what the Greenies are wishing on us all

The frequent complaints about woeful service from Sydney and Brisbane trains are similar. The Melbourne service is provided by a private contractor. The Brisbane and Sydney services are directly run by their State governments



COMMUTERS using some of Melbourne's busiest inner and middle-suburban stations are being left behind on platforms because of overcrowding on the rail system. Hot spots across the network include West Footscray, Yarraville, Kensington, Prahran, Glenhuntly, Armadale and Hawksburn stations. A Connex spokeswoman said it received complaints from squashed and stranded passengers and said most of the problems were caused by late or cancelled services. But the Public Transport Users Association and Connex drivers told The Age that increasing numbers of passengers were being left at busy inner-suburban stations. The State Government's decision to scrap Zone 3 has also increased passengers travelling from outer-suburban stations.

Metlink chief executive Bernie Carolan said anecdotal evidence showed car parks at former Zone 3 stations were almost full. "Those car parks are more popular than ever," Mr Carolan said. Metlink has also seen a rise in tickets being sold at former Zone 3 stations. Almost 170 million trips were made on the suburban network last year - an increase of 13 per cent.

While more passengers from Melbourne's outer suburbs use public transport, commuters in the middle and inner suburbs are feeling the squeeze. Department of Infrastructure figures show the Cranbourne, Pakenham, Sydenham and Broadmeadows lines suffer the worst levels of overcrowding. Pressure on inner-city stations such as Kensington on the Broadmeadows services will increase after the opening of the electrification extension to Craigieburn later this year.

A Connex driver said it was common for trains during the evening peak to wait up to four minutes for passengers to squeeze on at City Loop stations such as Melbourne Central and Parliament. "It's great to see all these people using trains but the services are just inadequate," he said. "It's just getting ridiculous. There are some trains that they could virtually cancel and put them elsewhere. They've still got the same old tired timetable. Let's review the lines and see where people are living."

But as the operator of the system, Connex cannot purchase new trains and make changes to timetables or increase services without Government approval. The Department of Infrastructure's train plan from 2003, obtained by The Age, showed at least 60 new trains needed to be purchased to cope with increased patronage from 2009. PTUA president Daniel Bowen said the lack of planning by the Government for new trains "was bordering on incompetence".

His comments came after Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky confirmed that the Government had paid $100,000 for nine Hitachi carriages that were initially sold off in 2002 for $2600 each. "They should also be making better use of the existing fleet, ensuring that frequent services run beyond the current peak hours, to help spread passenger numbers," Mr Bowen said. "The people of Melbourne have spoken with their feet and they want more trains."

Ms Kosky defended the purchase and said the second-hand trains would allow for four extra services a day, capable of transporting another 3200 passengers. She would not be drawn on whether the Government would fund new trains in next week's state budget. Opposition public transport spokesman Terry Mulder said it was an appalling lack of planning and said passengers should not be surprised to find themselves soon travelling on steam engines.

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When dogma trumps reason in Australia's Left

Uranium debate shows Labor can still defeat itself

LABOR frontbencher Anthony Albanese has got it all wrong in his analysis of why the party can afford to do the wrong thing and maintain its discredited and illogical no-new-mines uranium policy. Mr Albanese has said it was beyond belief to argue that marginal-seat voters who supported John Howard at recent elections would say, "Gee, I'll change my vote to Labor if only they change their policy on no new uranium mines". Perhaps not. But what many will say is that without uranium in the equation, Labor still favours symbolism over substance and therefore lacks credibility when it comes to dealing with climate change. Furthermore, an illogical attitude to retard an expanding industry in which Australia enjoys a natural advantage does nothing for Labor's economic credibility. For these reasons, uranium mining is a totemic issue, and how Labor handles it says a lot about whether the party is ready for office.

Realistically, inflammatory debates about uranium mining and industrial relations are part of the theatre of the ALP national conference. Fighting over uranium is a good way for the party to put a bit of skin back on the shins of environmental pin-up boy Peter Garrett, who has been forced to endure a series of uncomfortable public compromises such as support for clean coal and continued Tasmanian logging. For the ALP, it is important everyone's point of view is heard. What is most important, however, is that the authority of Labor's new leader, Kevin Rudd, shines through. Having made the point that the no-new-mines policy is a done deal, Mr Rudd can ill afford the public humiliation of a close vote, let alone defeat.

In prosecuting the anti-uranium case, Mr Albanese has employed clever rhetoric such as the claim that the ALP's Light on the Hill was not the product of radiation, and that you can guarantee uranium mining will lead to nuclear waste, but you can't guarantee it won't lead to nuclear weapons. He is, however, simplistic in dealing with the realities. Mr Albanese cites Iran's nuclear program as an example of proliferation, but he ignores the fact that Iran has abundant reserves of uranium of its own. No-one disagrees that the uranium trade must be accompanied by robust rules to ensure the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, but the reality is that Australia already mines and exports uranium.

The most pressing contradiction in the stance taken by Mr Albanese, however, is that Labor wants to talk tough on climate change but rejects what is globally acknowledged as a key response, namely nuclear energy. The Howard Government has cleverly ramped up the politics of uranium to expose Labor's weakness. Mr Rudd must realise that if Labor wants to be taken at face value over its concern about greenhouse gas emissions, the party needs to demonstrate it is serious about solutions. Without support for uranium there is a fundamental flaw in Labor's position on climate change. The Government knows this, and while Mr Rudd will rule Australia out of the nuclear fuel cycle to appease the Left, the Prime Minister has highlighted climate change response as the most important economic dilemma of the next decade.

The irony is that those who have campaigned hardest for a European-style solution embodied in the Kyoto Protocol and mandatory targets are most likely to have overlooked the fact that Europe, notably France, has made the biggest commitment to nuclear power. This contradiction again highlights the problems that arise when dogma replaces reason on issues such as nuclear power and climate change. From a scientific perspective, the question is would the world be better off if, instead of coal, China's booming demand for electricity were satisfied by nuclear power? The answer is an unequivocal yes.

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Rain still falling - but in the wrong place

Or is it the dams that are in the wrong place?

The rain continues to fall heavily in Sydney's coastal and eastern suburbs, as the Bureau of Meteorology confirms rainfall is significantly higher than usual for the month of April [Oh what a lovely "drought"! It's raining in Brisbane too as I write this]. April, the third wettest month in the year after March and June, has an average rainfall of 125.7 millimetres over 31 days. But over 174 millimetres has fallen this April, with more expected in the final six days of the month. Unfortunately much of the rainfall has been in eastern and coastal suburbs, with significant rainfalls staying frustratingly away from catchment areas in the west.

Over the last 23 hours across the state the highest falls were recorded in Bellambi, north of Wollongong, with 99 millimetres falling at their weather station. Eighty five millimetres fell at Williamtown, near Newcastle and 76 millimetres was recorded at Gosford. In the Sydney basin the highest falls - 76 millimetres - were recorded in the Royal National Park in Sydney's south, closely followed by Frenchs Forest with 72 millimetres and the small catchment area of Woronora Dam, which recorded 70 millimetres. The rain is expected to ease off this afternoon, according to the Bureau, though will continue to shower intermittently until Sunday, when it is predicted to be fine.

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