A man with one blind spot (apparently)

The writer of the excerpt below is Clive Hamilton, executive director of the Leftist Australia Institute. He starts by acknowledging how baseless political scares usually are so the naive reader might think him plausible when he says that global warming is the exception. It's a clever approach from a diehard warmist but when he gets to the point of hinting at the need to "suspend" democracy, I hope most people can see the Stalinist behind the mask.

His lack of intellectual seriousness can also be seen in his reliance on the pronouncements of chief climate hysteric James Hansen -- who in typical Stalinist style relies of fudged statistics to make his case. If his statistics are not fudged, why will he not release the raw data on which they are based? It's a gross breach of normal scientific procedure not to give open access to your data so Hansen's refusal speaks for itself. It shows he has much to fear from independent examination of his work. Even with the roadblocks put up by Hansen, McKitrick recently found glaring errors in Hansen's statistics so the unreliability of what Hansen says is more than mere suspicion. Hamiliton should know all that but his aim is obviously propagation of panic, not the propagation of truth

POLITICAL actors typically engage in exaggeration to advance their agenda, and in the case of climate change the situation is no different. The Labor Party exaggerated the likely damage due to the introduction of the GST, despite the fact that Paul Keating wanted to introduce just such a tax. The Coalition is exaggerating the economic effects of Labor's industrial relations policy. Social-welfare campaigners often overstate the extent of poverty, hoping that appreciation of the magnitude of the problem will spur the public or politicians into doing something about it. Environmental campaigns are no different. Environmentalists have often overstated the effects of environmental decline.

The risks of nuclear power, though considerable, have been exaggerated. The dangers of urban air pollution have been inflated. The threats posed by DDT, lead pollution and pesticides, while significant, have usually been presented as much scarier than they actually are. And the likely effects of genetically modified crops have been blown out of proportion. The purpose of political exaggeration is to stimulate stronger emotional responses, usually fear, and make us more likely to act in the way desired. When your opponents are busily exaggerating the other way, the pressure is almost irresistible.

Yet there is one area where the opposite is the case, where the protagonists on one side have for years systematically understated the dangers. Climate scientists have been afraid to talk about the true extent of the dangers of global warming. Those who have looked closely at what the scientists are concluding believe that the truth is so frightening that, if told, it will stop people from acting, rather than stimulate them to do more. There is a cavernous gap between the urgency of the warnings from science and the political response to it. The concern among the public is way ahead of that of our politicians but it remains true that the public simply has no grasp of the magnitude of the disaster that looms ahead of us.

Nowhere in the rich world, except perhaps in the US, is this radical disconnect greater than in Australia. In June the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics carried a paper by James Hansen and others clarifying the danger of human-induced climate change. Hansen is widely recognised as the world's most eminent climate scientist. The authors concluded that an additional warming of 1C above the year-2000 level will have effects that "may be highly disruptive", using expected sea-level rise as the best indicator of danger. A 1C increase above the 2000 level means an average temperature increase of about 1.7C above the pre-industrial age average. The authors' analysis suggests that this "tipping point" is almost locked in.

They acknowledge that avoiding this danger point is "still technically feasible" but in practice keeping global temperatures from rising by less than 2C is now beyond us. As industrial activity in China and India increases, the effects of global warming will be intensified. In short, we are already past the point that locks in 2C of warming, and will without question go well beyond it. Even a 3C rise is looking very hard to avoid. Very few people, even among environmentalists, have truly faced up to what the science is telling us.

This is because the implications of 3C, let alone 4C or 5C, are so horrible that we look to any possible scenario to head it off, including the canvassing of "emergency" responses such as the suspension of democratic processes.

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A thug "protester"

The Stalin types are ever with us

AN APEC protester threw a dart into a police officer's skull before attacking other officers with a metal pole, a court heard yesterday. Gavin George Begbie, 40, is facing 12 charges over the alleged attack on police in Sydney during Saturday's demonstrations. Mr Begbie was one of the five people arrested and kept in custody following 18 arrests. The group yesterday faced Sydney's Parramatta Bail Court via audio visual link from the Sydney Police Centre in Surry Hills.

Two of the protesters, including Marcelea Fabiola Olea, 31, from Victoria, were granted bail. Police allege Ms Olea, who was filming the rally, punched a policeman in the face. Three others, including Mr Begbie, were remanded in custody by Magistrate Kevin Flack.

Mr Begbie, a part-time farmhand from Pimlico in northern NSW, allegedly threw a dart at Chief Insp Mark Death about 11.30am on Saturday. It is alleged the metal-tipped dart pierced the officer's baseball cap and the point lodged in his skull. According to police documents tendered to the court, when other officers tried to arrest Mr Begbie, he swung a metal pole covered in newspaper at them and then struck Constable Michael Nolan in the forehead, causing him to bleed profusely.

Police allege Mr Begbie lashed out at two other officers, allegedly striking one in the thigh and arm and the other in the nose and back, before he was restrained and taken into custody. Police allege he said: "I didn't even get the guy in the eye. What's the big deal?"

Police prosecutor Andrea Rodriguez strongly opposed bail. "There are multiple assaults on multiple police officers ... throwing of a metal dart, embedding someone's skull and hitting a police officer with a metal pole requiring four stitches," Sgt Rodriguez told the court. Mr Begbie faces four counts of assaulting police, five of resisting arrest and one count of throwing a missile.

The five accused were not arrested in restricted APEC areas and face charges including assaulting police, resisting arrest and hindering police.

Mr Begbie, Andrew Edward Pearson, 37, of the Sydney suburb of Balmain and Stephen Martin, 25, of Queensland, were refused bail and were remanded in custody to appear before Sydney's Central Local Court today. Daniella Olea said she was with her sister Marcelea at the protests and that they were both independent filmmakers. She said she witnessed the entire incident with police and said her sister did not assault police. "We were filming and they (the police) basically wanted the camera. That's what they wanted and that's what they were trying to get," the 25-year-old said.

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$30 a fortnight extra promised for veterans' affairs

Smart move

LABOR stands to gain the backing of the veterans' community after unveiling a $55 million plan to increase pensions for former Diggers and war widows. In a pre-election pitch to the 175,000 services community, Kevin Rudd will tomorrow promise to increase pensions by up to $30 per fortnight for all disabled war veterans.

The promise, to be made by the Opposition Leader during a keynote speech to the RSL National Congress, follows a strong campaign by veterans to have pension increases pegged to a higher annual rate. Labor's plan will affect nearly 140,000 disabled war veterans who have served in some of history's bloodiest conflicts, including World War II and the Vietnam War. But it will also flow to veterans injured during more recent conflicts, including Iraq, Afghanistan and the UN-led peacekeeping efforts in East Timor.

"Veterans have sacrificed so much for our nation and they deserve more than having this Government tell them they have never been better off," Mr Rudd said. "This announcement is a further step by Labor on the road to ensuring that our veterans and their widows receive the compensation that they so richly deserve."

The RSL and other veterans' groups have been lobbying the Government for years to index all disabled veterans and war widows pensions to the higher rate, known as MTAWE. Mr Rudd said the increased pension payment would see veterans earning up to $30 extra per fortnight. "Our veterans and their widows have paid a very high price for their service to our country. This is about fixing an injustice," he said.

Last night, the RSL national president Bill Crews said war veterans would be thrilled by the Labor announcement. "Currently there is an inequity because these pensions have been falling behind the cost of living," Mr Crews said. He expected Labor to win plaudits from the RSL. "We'll tell our members that Labor has signed up to it (the higher pension plan)," he said. "But we are not playing favourites here."

Labor's veterans affairs spokesman Alan Griffin said the commitment on pensions would take effect from September 2008. "We have listened to our nation's veterans and their widows and we have responded to their concerns," Mr Griffin said. He said veterans from recent conflicts were already needing assistance as a result of their injuries. "The Howard Government has steadfastly refused to index the domestic component of the war widows' pension."

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Amazing defence of false allegations

With constant false allegations against teachers by vindictive girls, it is minimal justice for all allegations to be shielded from publicity unless and until a guilty verdict is reached

A PARENTS' group has attacked union calls for teachers accused of misconduct to be spared being named and shamed.

The Australian Education Union said teachers who were hauled before disciplinary hearings, including those being investigated for sexual misconduct with minors, should remain anonymous unless found guilty. The union suggested the ban in its submission to a government review of the Victorian Institute of Teaching. AEU state president Mary Bluett said the VIT's practice of naming accused teachers who were found not guilty was ruining careers. "Anyone can make an accusation to the VIT and the VIT must investigate it," Ms Bluett said. "For a teacher who is not guilty, simply being named can be enough for some schools to avoid employing that teacher."

Gail McHardy from Parents Victoria said the ban could make a teacher think twice about the consequences of making a wrong choice. "Why should teachers be treated any differently than any other professional or member of the public?" she said.

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