Arrogant regulator to cause taxpayers MORE pain

And the crooked bitch mainly responsible is still in her job!

A class action against the federal Government is set to be launched next week after the $55million payout to Pan Pharmaceuticals founder Jim Selim. The Government could be liable for another multi-million-dollar payout because of the action taken by the Therapeutic Goods Administration in 2003 to cancel Pan's licence. The Weekend Australian has also uncovered further evidence of what occurred in the lead-up to the decision to cancel Pan's licence - including a senior TGA officer shredding notes taken at a crucial meeting.

Mr Selim claimed the government had breached its duty and abused its power of public office, and his Federal Court case was settled on Thursday in his favour. More than 300 people lost their jobs, shareholders lost tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of businesses were affected by Pan's closure in 2003.

In January that year, people reported hallucinations and vomiting as a result of taking travel sickness drug Travacalm. The TGA then investigated Pan and meetings were held to decide what action to take. On April 23, 2003, the TGA organised for an expert advisory group to decide whether the public was at "imminent risk" of death, serious injury or serious illness from Pan's products. It was a statutory requirement that the government believed this "imminent risk" existed before it could take the action to cancel Pan's licence. The EAG was later to report back to the TGA that there was no "imminent risk", although it did find there was a lack of confidence in the quality of Pan's products.

Pages of notes taken by the members of the EAG were later taken by the TGA and destroyed at the direction of senior bureaucrat Fiona Cumming. Dr Cumming is the director of the office of complementary medicines. At the same time, the EAG was meeting at the Qantas Club at Sydney Airport to discuss the risks of Pan's products, media officer Kay McNeice was in the TGA's Canberra office putting the finishing touches to a media release - announcing the cancellation of Pan's licence.

Although the notes of the EAG's deliberations were destroyed, lawyers were able to unearth a transcript of the meeting, which had been recorded at the behest of the TGA. "We don't have much evidence do we," one member noted. "We're having trouble getting to 'imminent risk'," said another. The findings of the EAG did not justify an immediate suspension of Pan's licence, a proposition agreed to in court by the TGA's director of the office of devices, blood and tissues Rita Maclachlan, who spent several days being cross-examined by Mr Selim's barristers. Immediate suspension meant Pan could not dispute the issue in the courts, a fact the TGA was aware of.

Ms Maclachlan, second in command at the TGA, was also present when then health minister Kay Patterson and prime minister John Howard were briefed in late April. "Why didn't you speak up and say, 'Look, even though it's not my call ... we are about to implement the largest recall in the history of the Western world, unlawfully, because we are going to deny the company its statutory requirement to natural justice'. Why didn't you say that?" Mr Selim's barrister, Justin Gleeson SC, asked. "I don't have a recollection, Mr Gleeson" Ms Maclachlan replied.

When Ms Maclachlan gave evidence that she was concerned that one batch of Pan products - manufactured in August 2000 and not part of the 2003 recall - could cause severe allergic reactions in the public, the judge hearing the case, Arthur Emmett asked a few questions of his own. "You weren't prepared to recall this product back then but that was the reason you were going to call the other 6000 products back (in 2003)?" "I don't have a particular recollection as to what happened with this product," Ms Maclachlan replied.

"But you've just told me ... that you were concerned that this product was still out in the community," Justice Emmett said. "You didn't take any steps to have it recalled? I just find that quite unbelievable." Ms Maclachlan declined to comment yesterday.

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Global Warming: Solving an Environmental Problem or Creating a Social Crisis?

By William Kininmonth of Melbourne, Australia. William Kininmonth is a former head of Australia's National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organization. Kininmonth points out that it is only unrealistic figures fed into climate models that produce worrying projections

Prevention of dangerous climate change, particularly through implementation of a national carbon pollution reduction scheme, has emerged as a primary policy objective of the Rudd government. The rationale for the policy is the scientific assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its computer-based projections of global warming. We are told by the IPCC `consensus of scientists' that continued burning of fossil fuels, and a range of other industry activities that increase the concentration of `greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere, will lead to dangerous climate change, possibly passing a `tipping point' causing `runaway global warming'. What does this all mean, really?

The IPCC's most recent assessment attempts to be helpful to the casual enquirer by having a series of explanations for `frequently asked questions', or FAQs. The first FAQ is `What factors determine earth's climate'? We are informed that, on average, the earth emits 240 w m-2 of radiation to space and that this equates to an emission temperature of -19oC. The earth's temperature, however, is about 14oC and the -19oC temperature is found at a height of about 5 km above the surface. To quote the IPCC: "The reason the earth's surface is this warm is the presence of greenhouse gases, which act as a partial blanket for the longwave radiation coming from the earth's surface. This blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect".

This explanation by the IPCC is clearly misleading, if not wrong. The inference that the greenhouse gases are acting like a blanket suggests that they are increasing the insulating properties of the atmosphere. However, the main gases of the atmosphere are oxygen and nitrogen, non-greenhouse gases, and they are also excellent insulators against the conduction of heat (like a blanket); adding additional trace amounts of carbon dioxide will have no appreciable impact on the insulating properties of the atmosphere.

In its third FAQ, `What is the greenhouse effect?' the IPCC comes to the nub of the issue but provides a different and equally misleading explanation. "Much of the thermal radiation emitted by the land and the ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to earth. This is called the greenhouse effect". According to the IPCC's global energy budget, the surface emits 390 W m-2 of radiation and the energy radiated back to the surface is 324 W m-2. It is difficult to see how an ongoing net loss of longwave radiation energy from the surface of 66 W m-2 can lead to warming! Indeed, we are all aware that between dusk and dawn the earth's surface cools.

The IPCC has not explained in a scientifically sound and coherent way, how the `greenhouse effect' is maintained. The greenhouse gases do not increase the insulating properties of the atmosphere and the back radiation does not warm the surface. The IPCC explanation of the greenhouse effect is obfuscation and, even to the mildly scientific literate, reflects ignorance of basic processes of the climate system.

How then do we explain to people who are going to be affected by reactionary government policies what are the greenhouse effect and its enhancement by additional carbon dioxide?

A credible explanation has no need for smoke and mirrors. The energy flow through the climate system is predominantly by way of four stages: 1) absorption of solar radiation at the surface; 2) conduction of heat and evaporation of latent energy from the surface to the atmospheric boundary layer; 3) convective overturning that distributes heat and latent energy through the troposphere; and 4) radiation of energy from the atmosphere to space. We will see that it is the characteristics of convective overturning that keep the surface warmer than it would otherwise be.

The Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) global average energy budget of the earth is used by the IPCC and is a useful starting point for explanation of the establishment and maintenance of the greenhouse effect. Of the 340 units of solar radiation entering the earth's atmosphere, 67 are absorbed by the atmosphere and 168 are absorbed at the surface. There is thus an ongoing source of solar energy available to the atmosphere and the surface. At the surface there is a net accumulation of radiation energy because the incoming solar radiation (168 units) exceeds the net loss of longwave radiation (66 units).

In the atmospheric layer there is absorption of 417 units (390 of emission from the surface, less 40 that go directly to space, plus absorption of 67 of solar radiation) and an emission of 519 units (324 back to the surface and 195 direct emission to space). The net effect of the interaction between the greenhouse gases and radiation is a tendency to cool the atmosphere because it is continually losing energy.

Overall there is a dichotomy, with radiation processes firstly tending to warm the earth's surface and secondly tending to cool the atmosphere. Air is an excellent insulator against conduction of heat and will not transfer heat through the atmosphere, as is necessary for energy balance. Also, the thermodynamic properties of air (potential temperature increases with height) ensure that turbulent motions of the atmosphere will mix energy downward, not upward as required.

The process for transferring energy from the surface to the atmosphere, necessary to achieve overall energy balance of the climate system, was explained by Herbert Riehl and Joanne Malkus (the latter better known as Joanne Simpson) in a 1958 paper, On the heat balance of the equatorial trough zone (Geophysica). Riehl and Malkus noted that boundary layer air, rising buoyantly in the protected updraughts of deep tropical convection clouds, converts heat and latent energy to potential energy. Away from the convection, compensating subsidence converts potential energy to heat.

What is implied in the Riehl and Malkus model is that deep tropical convection, and the transfer of energy from the surface to the atmosphere, will not take place without buoyant updraughts within deep convection clouds. That is, there is a need for the temperature of the atmosphere to decrease with altitude and that the rate of decrease of temperature must be sufficient to allow buoyancy of the air ascending in the updraughts. From well-known thermodynamic laws, the rate of decrease of temperature must be at least 6.5oC/km to allow the buoyancy forces of convection to overcome the natural stratification of the atmosphere.

The climate system will come into energy equilibrium when temperatures are such that the net solar radiation absorbed is balanced by the longwave radiation to space. At equilibrium, the greenhouse effect (ie, that the average surface temperature of 14oC is greater than the -19oC blackbody emission temperature of earth) is an outcome from the need for convective overturning of the atmosphere.

Additional warming of the surface will come about when the greenhouse effect is enhanced. The fundamental question is how much warming will additional greenhouse gas concentrations cause and will it be dangerous?

An increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reduces the emission of longwave radiation to space and increases the back radiation at the surface. An increase in back radiation adds energy to the surface, which will further warm the surface. However there is a constraint on the surface temperature rise because of the commensurate increase in rate of energy loss from the surface: both the rate of infrared emission and the rate of evaporation of latent heat increase with temperature.

The increase in radiation emission from the surface can be calculated from the well-known Boltzmann equation and is 5.4 units/oC at 15oC. The earth's surface is mainly ocean or freely transpiring vegetation and evaporation will increase near exponentially with temperature according to the Claussius-Clapeyron relationship and is 6.0 units/oC at 15oC. According to the IPCC, the radiative forcing from doubling of carbon dioxide concentration is 3.7 units. The actual surface temperature increase is derived from the ratio of the radiation forcing (3.7) to the natural rate of increase in surface energy loss with temperature (5.4 + 6.0). The direct surface temperature rise from a doubling of carbon dioxide is therefore 3.7/(5.4 + 6.0) = 0.3oC.

A 0.3oC global temperature increase towards the end of the 21st century from a doubling of current carbon dioxide concentration is not obviously dangerous. However, what also needs to be taken into account is the positive feedback. A warming of the surface temperature will cause a warming of the overlying atmosphere, an increase in the water vapour concentration (another naturally occurring greenhouse gas), a further increase in back radiation, and an incremental increase in surface temperature. Each successive incremental surface temperature increase will cause another incremental temperature increase through the positive feedback amplification.

The amplification follows standard mathematical treatment and, as long as the ratio r is less than unity, the gain is given by [1 / (1 - r)]. Here r is the ratio of natural increase in back radiation with temperature (4.8 units/oC - estimated from a standard radiation transfer model) to the natural increase of surface energy loss with temperature (as previously, 11.4 units/oC). The natural gain is 1.7 and increases the surface temperature rise from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration from 0.3oC to 0.5oC.

A 0.5oC increase in global temperature over the coming century is within recent short-term temperature variability and is less than the apparent global temperature rise of the past century. Moreover, both the direct forcing of surface temperature and the amplification gain are tightly constrained by the magnitude of the natural increase of surface energy loss with temperature increase. It is not immediately apparent how `runaway global warming' could come about with such a constraint.

A fundamental question arises as to why the IPCC global temperature projections for doubling carbon dioxide concentration, based on computer models of the climate system, lead to estimates of about 3oC, or about six times the above estimate.

A clue to the conundrum can be found in published descriptions of the performance of the computer models used in the IPCC fourth assessment. Isaac Held and Brian Soden, writing in the Journal of Climate (2006) note that the rate of increase of evaporation in the computer models, on average, only increases at about one-third of the rate expected from the Claussius Clapeyron relationship. Additionally, Frank Wentz and colleagues, writing in the journal Science (2007), have confirmed the under-specification of evaporation increase with temperature and, from satellite based observations, have determined that global evaporation does indeed comply with the Claussius Clapeyron relationship.

It is clear from the above formulation of the surface temperature rise and the associated amplification gain that each is sensitive to the specification of evaporation increase with temperature. Substitution of the average evaporation specification of computer models into the formulation will boost the projected temperature rise from the above expected value of 0.5oC to 1.5oC, the lower end of IPCC projections. When the specification of evaporation increase with temperature is very low, as in the more extreme models, then the feedback amplification gain increases to a value of about ten; the temperature sensitivity of the computer model becomes highly exaggerated and model would likely simulate the behaviour of runaway global warming. The behaviour, of course, is false and arises only because of the significant under-specification of evaporation.

Despite the many claims that the IPCC projections of human-caused global warming are sound, the consensus of climate scientists and that the science is settled, there are disturbing shortcomings to both the essential explanations and to the computer modelling. The shortcomings are disturbing because the projections and their associated predictions of diabolical impacts on environmental systems are the only rational justification given for wholesale government restructuring of our industrial base and lifestyles.

This is the first time in human history that there has been a conscious move at the national level to discard the tools that have underpinned security, wellbeing and comfort. We are deliberately abrogating energy usage from proven and widely available sources on the basis of a perceived environmental threat which is poorly articulated and substantiated only by recourse to obviously deficient computer modelling. Why am I reminded of Charles MacKay's 1841 tome, "Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds'?

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Irrigating crops is "Terrorism"??

Trust a Leftist to debauch language. Ironic -- but entirely to be expected -- that it is in fact government regulations that inhibit farmers from reducing their water use

South Australian Premier Mike Rann yesterday declared that anyone "treacherously" diverting water from the Murray-Darling system illegally would be committing "an act of terrorism against the Australian people". The Premier's tough talking followed moves by the competition watchdog to boost water trading after a referral from federal Water Minister Penny Wong. "A key part of the Rudd Government's plan to address the challenges faced in the Murray-Darling Basin is making the water market more efficient so water can move to where it brings the most benefits," a spokeswoman for the minister told The Weekend Australian.

While Mr Rann refused to comment on specific allegations, the Queensland Government came under fire for permitting the construction of a large dam and diversion channels along the Paroo River, regarded as the Murray-Darling Basin's last free-flowing river. A spokesman for the Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water said approval for the works had been granted before a moratorium on harvesting water from the Paroo was declared in 2001.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has issued a position paper and is seeking submissions on rules governing fees imposed for terminating water contracts. "Some irrigation infrastructure operators impose high termination fees on farmers who elect to sell their water and terminate water delivery rights," ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel said. "High termination fees prevent farmers from realising the market value of their water entitlements and deter trade in water." The ACCC paper proposes a cap on termination fees of 11 times annual access fees, falling to eight times annual access fees by 2015.

The move was welcomed by John Williams from the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. "We must have free movement of water," he said. "Any of these issues of restricting the trade means that there isn't a full trading opportunity across the states." His remarks were echoed by the Australian Conservation Foundation's Paul Sinclair. "When they signed up to the national water initiative, governments talked about the need for open trade," he said. "Things like these fees are an impediment to that trade." ....

Opposition water spokesman John Cobb warned that exit fees were a direct response to the Government's "ad hoc" water buybacks, saying irrigation infrastructure operators were trying to protect their assets.

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Record Immigration Adds to Australian Housing Woes

Real estate experts warn Australia faces an acute shortage of affordable housing as immigration reaches record levels. There are estimates that Australia needs to build an extra 40,000 new homes a year simply to cope with current demand. Australia opens its doors to about 300,000 new migrants next year as part of a plan to address a chronic lack of workers. That means the country will see its highest immigration flow in more than 60 years. An army of temporary and permanent settlers will be granted visas as part of a government effort to sustain a decade-and-a-half of economic growth.

There are three major strands to Australia's migration program: skilled workers, family reunions and humanitarian migrants. The skilled component is at unprecedented levels, with qualified migrants being recruited in vast numbers from traditional areas including Britain and New Zealand, as well as emerging nations such as China and India. In demand are accountants, engineers, computer professionals, health care workers and many workers in skilled trades, such as construction workers.

Such an influx of new migrants puts pressure on Australian society and has helped create a housing crisis as demand for inexpensive accommodation in major cities outweighs supply.

Demographer Bernard Salt says Australia is struggling to cope with the expanded immigration program. "During calendar 2007 the Australian continent added 332,000 people," Salt said. "Never before in our history have we added that number of people to our population base. 330,000 people per year is a rate and pace that we're not really comfortable with. We're used to growing at the 220, 230,000 per year. Our systems, our infrastructure, our culture can cope with that. We're un-used to traveling at this pace."

Thousands of Australians find it hard to buy or rent affordable homes, a problem exacerbated by decade-high interest rates, increasing land prices and taxes. The government recently began a program to add 50-thousand rental properties for low-income earners to the market. Real estate experts, however, say it will take at least four years before such measures help make housing more affordable. They say an average wage earner in Australia will struggle to buy an apartment or house in a country where housing inflation has been rampant in recent years, although does show some signs of easing.

The rental market, however, remains strong; a shortage of properties led to double-digit rent increases in the past year.

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