Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Ya gotta laugh!

Huge excitement over an apparent temperature rise of one tenth of one degree Celsius! plus an argument from ignorance!

As the old saying goes, the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  But they ignore that.  Given their inability to "explain" a tiny fluctuation they say it MUST be due to human activity!  They sure are exemplars of scientific rigor!  They should go into epidemiology.  Speculation passes for fact every day  there

It's not research anyway.  It's just modelling.  Did they include a model where clouds had a cooling effect?  I don't need to guess.  For your delectation,  I append the journal abstract

A US-led research group is claiming to have bolstered the argument that global warming is real, and humans are largely to blame.   Scientists say this is the most comprehensive study to date on global ocean warming.  The research has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

The team looked at rising ocean temperatures over the past 50 years, and a dozen models projecting climate change patterns.

Australian based co-author, Dr John Church from Australia's island state of Tasmania says there's no way all of the world's oceans could've warmed by one tenth of a degree Celsius without human impact.  He says nature only accounts for 10 per cent of the increase.  [How does he know?]

Dr Church says researchers from America, Australia, Japan and India examined a dozen different models used to project climate change, past studies have only looked at a couple at a time.

"And this has allowed the group to rule out that the changes are related to natural variability in the climate system," he said.

Leading climate change and oceanography expert, Professor Nathan Bindoff says scientists are now certain man-made greenhouse gases are the primary cause.  "The evidence is unequivocal for global warming," he said.

He says the new research balances the man-made impacts of warming greenhouse gases and cooling pollution in the troposphere, against natural changes in the ocean's temperature and volcanic eruptions.

"This paper is important because for the first time we can actually say that we're virtually certain that the oceans have warmed, and that warming is caused not by natural processes but by rising greenhouse gases primarily," he said.

The research team says the ground-breaking study will help guide further climate change research and international policy development.

Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales

By P. J. Gleckler et al.


Large-scale increases in upper-ocean temperatures are evident in observational records. Several studies have used well-established detection and attribution methods to demonstrate that the observed basin-scale temperature changes are consistent with model responses to anthropogenic forcing and inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural variability. These studies relied on a single observational data set and employed results from only one or two models. Recent identification of systematic instrumental biases in expendable bathythermograph data has led to improved estimates of ocean temperature variability and trends and provide motivation to revisit earlier detection and attribution studies.

We examine the causes of ocean warming using these improved observational estimates, together with results from a large multimodel archive of externally forced and unforced simulations. The time evolution of upper ocean temperature changes in the newer observational estimates is similar to that of the multimodel average of simulations that include the effects of volcanic eruptions.

Our detection and attribution analysis systematically examines the sensitivity of results to a variety of model and data-processing choices. When global mean changes are included, we consistently obtain a positive identification (at the 1% significance level) of an anthropogenic fingerprint in observed upper-ocean temperature changes, thereby substantially strengthening existing detection and attribution evidence.

Nature Climate Change (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1553

The usual defence bungledom

Not a single ship seaworthy when needed to help cyclone victims

TWO of the navy's crucial support ships remain in dock and unavailable despite an outlay of more than $170 million of taxpayer funds and a ministerial bollocking.

The 28-year-old, 18,000 tonne replenishment ship HMAS Success and the 5800-tonne, 32-year-old amphibious vessel HMAS Tobruk, are both docked at Garden Island naval base in Sydney Harbour.

More than $106 million has been spent on the Success since January 2010, and it spent only 14 days at sea last year.

The Tobruk has absorbed $65 million since May 2009, but remains in dock with technical problems related to her age.

The Success was upgraded with a new double hull in Singapore last year, but a serious misalignment between her engines and propeller shaft, made worse by the extra weight of the new hull, had to be fixed. This involved shifting her 80-tonne engines by a fraction of a millimetre. Another $37 million is earmarked for a mid-life refit later this year.

Defence is examining options to buy a new replenishment ship and the official line is the $170 million spent on the old vessels was worthwhile.

Insiders say any more money should be directed to new vessels.

To make matters worse the navy's newest amphibious support ship, HMAS Choules, is undergoing routine maintenance although she is on 48-hours notice to move.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith slammed the navy last year when the entire amphibious fleet was unavailable for disaster relief support in the wake of Cyclone Yasi.

Opposition defence spokesman David Johnston said the Government must explain what value for money taxpayers had received from the outlays on the old support ships.


Not much multiculturalism in Sydney's elite schools

FEW children of recent migrants are entering Sydney's high-fee private schools, which remain the preserve of Australians from English-speaking backgrounds.

At many of the city's high-fee independent schools less than 10 per cent of students have a parent who speaks a language other than English. Trinity, MLC and Meriden - all in the inner west - are the only high-fee privates where more than half the student body comes from non-English-speaking backgrounds.

Nearly half the private high schools in Sydney enrol more than 80 per cent of their students from English-speaking backgrounds, according to an analysis of figures published on the federal government's My School website.

Monte Sant' Angelo, Wenona, Kambala, St Ignatius, Queenwood, Redlands and Ravenswood are among those schools where fewer than 10 per cent of students state that they or their parents speak a language other than English.

A number of private schools, catering for specific religious, ethnic or cultural groups, are almost exclusively attended by students from language backgrounds other than English.

In stark contrast to the elite private schools, public selective high schools are dominated by children of recent migrants. James Ruse, regarded as the highest-achieving school in Australia, draws 96 per cent of enrolments from other language backgrounds [mostly Chinese]. Only Auburn Girls, with 98 per cent, attracts more students from other language groups.

The map of school ethnic diversity parallels much of Sydney's cultural complexion. Although government high schools educate far more of the students from other cultures, public schools on the city's fringes, the north shore and southern suburbs also enrol few students from non-English speaking backgrounds.

Helen Proctor, a lecturer in the faculty of education and social work at the University of Sydney, said it was not clear whether the ethnic mix of private schools was the result of enrolment policies, geography or parental choice.

"Parents are broadly in favour of multiculturalism but alarmed about any concentrations of ethnicity, other than Anglo ethnicity, in a school," said Dr Proctor, a co-author of a book on school choice.

Schools such as Monte give direct preference to children of former students, while other private schools require students to be enrolled within the year of their birth to guarantee entry.

But Vicki Steer, the principal of Ravenswood, which has 9 per cent of students from other language backgrounds, acknowledged independent schools faced a challenge to win favour from migrant communities, most particularly those from Asia.

"For many families, having a child accepted at a school such as James Ruse is something they would perceive as a higher honour than an academic scholarship to Ravenswood," she said.  Ravenswood has introduced Chinese into its language offerings in part to make the school more attractive to Chinese Australians.

"We are committed to a multicultural society and promoting an understanding of other cultures and ways of life," Ms Steer said.   "We are very conscious of the fact that our girls live on the upper north shore, that for many of them their experiences can be limited and we have to try and create experiences for them."

Dr Paul Burgis, the principal of PLC Sydney, where 34 per cent of students are from other cultural backgrounds, said there was a huge level of exposure to, and acceptance of, other cultures at the school.

"It would almost be offensive if I, as a principal, was to talk about it: 'Why do you have to raise it as an issue? We're past that now, we're just friends'," he said.  "At a school like PLC it's almost an invisible question."


Julia's rejection of homosexual marriage "hurtful", say activists

SAME-SEX couples would find Prime Minister Julia Gillard's comment that a committed relationship doesn't require a marriage certificate hurtful, a marriage equality group said today.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard drew on her own relationship to defend her opposition to same-sex marriage on ABC TV last night.

Ms Gillard is not married to her long-term partner Tim Mathieson, but says that doesn't mean they aren't in a committed relationship.  "I think you can have a relationship of love and commitment and trust and understanding that doesn't need a marriage certificate associated with it," Ms Gillard told Q&A.   "That's my life experience - so I'm speaking from that life experience."

Australian Marriage Equality national convener Alex Greenwich said Ms Gillard's comments would be viewed as hurtful by many same-sex couples.

"The Prime Minister is able to choose not to marry, however this choice is denied to many same-sex couples who desperately want to celebrate the traditions of marriage and have the legal protection, security and recognition that comes with marriage," he said.

"The Prime Minister may not want to marry herself, but most Australians value the importance of marriage greatly and as such want their gay and lesbian friends to have equal access and be treated as equal citizens by the marriage act."

Mr Greenwich said Australia is the only developed English-speaking country without a major party leader who supports marriage equality.

The AME and some clergy have also slammed an Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) video campaign that claims same-sex marriage may lead to polygamy, saying it is scaremongering.

Mr Greenwich said international experience proves there is no link between same-sex marriage and polygamy.  "This scare campaign proves the ACL has no argument left except fear. Its offensive nature will drive undecided politicians and members of the public towards supporting marriage equality," he said.

Labor MPs will be allowed a conscience vote on gay marriage when legislation is put before the parliament.


1 comment:

Paul said...

I'm not hurt.