Friday, October 07, 2016
A dramatic, sudden loss of wind power generation was the root cause of South Australia’s state wide blackout last week
And no mystery about why the windmills failed. They HAD to be shut down in high winds or they would have flown apart. The report below corresponds exactly with my earlier diagnosis of the problem
And the bulk of damage to high voltage transmission lines that was caused by high winds and paraded as evidence to defend renewables most likely took place after the power had been lost.
These are the major facts contained in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) preliminary report:
Preliminary Report – Black System Event In South Australia On 28 September 2016 — Australian Energy Market Operator
More work is needed to flesh out the forensic, time sequenced analysis that has already been conducted.
But there is enough in the interim report to make the rush to defence of renewables mounted by special interest groups and conflicted state governments since the lights went look foolish.
Certainly, the power would not have been lost were it not for the big storm.
And seven big towers were damaged in the lead up to the blackout.
But AEMO said data currently available indicates that the damage to the Davenport to Brinkworth 275 kV line on which 14 towers were damaged “occurred following the SA Black System”.
The big event was a 123 MW reduction in output from North Brown Hill Wind Farm, Bluff Wind Farm, Hallett Wind Farm and Hallett Hill Wind Farm at 16.18.09.
Seconds later there was an 86 MW reduction in output from Hornsdale wind farm and a 106 MW reduction in output from Snowtown Two wind farm.
No explanation was given for the reduction in wind farm output.
But the loss of wind farm production put too much pressure on the electricity interconnector with Victoria which cut off supply.
This in turn led to a shut down at the Torrens Island power station, Ladbroke Grove power station, all remaining wind farms and the Murraylink interconnector.
AEMO says a lot of work is needed to fully explore what happened.
Intolerance at Australian Universities too
A sign of our energetic participation in the global madness is the vicious, ugly protest at the University of Sydney against an honorary doctorate for John Howard.
Without doubt, Howard is the greatest Australian prime minister since Menzies. His only serious competition is Bob Hawke, who was certainly a fine prime minister, but Howard puts Hawke in the shade for longevity and his extraordinary achievement in getting GST and securing the nation’s borders.
When I was an undergraduate at Sydney University back in the 1970s, a sizeable number of its academics supported Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and every other communist dictator. That made them all fellows in good standing in the university community. But a democratic giant like Howard — who won four elections perfectly peacefully, and lost two perfectly peacefully, and who has written two splendid books — is somehow or the other profoundly offensive to the newly authoritarian and deeply illiberal atmosphere dominant on our campuses.
The truly mad element here is that this is the new atmosphere of our campuses in repose. Previously they became deeply intolerant during some political crisis, such as the Vietnam War. Now they are intolerant all the time.
How Africans say "thank you" for Australia accepting them as refugees
Terrified families have set up armed patrols of their suburbs because they are living in fear of Apex gang members terrorising their suburbs in Melbourne.
And one woman has even revealed how the midnight attack on her home has left her too afraid to to either stay at home or to complete simple tasks like putting petrol in her car at night.
Paul, from Caroline Springs in the city's west, told Daily Mail Australia he didn't sleep for two-and-a-half days after his next door neighbour's home was targeted by a group of the young thugs.
'We had people coming through our street for five days after the first attack,' Paul said.
'They are pretty cocky I know of one incident where they sat on a family's brick fence and drank beer for thirty minutes after they robbed their home because they knew the cops would take a long time to come.
'They came through at all times day and night, took photos of houses and cars in the street, it made us feel like we could be the next target.'
Paul and his family left their home for eight days before reluctantly returning.
Louie lives in the same suburb and leaves his wife and two young children alone every night so he can help keep his neighbours safe.
'People are scared,' Louie told Daily Mail Australia. 'There is no hiding that they are worried, we are only on the street to help them.
'Everyone started for their own reasons, I started because my neighbour was broken into and her car was stolen.
'We weren't operating as a group at first but it just happened.'
CCTV from the neighbourhood where the patrol units are now operating shows a teenager looking over a tall fence during the day
CCTV from the neighbourhood where the patrol units are now operating shows a teenager looking over a tall fence during the day
The woman Louie spoke about is also a friend of Paul's. 'That lady is a widower and was too afraid to replace her car,' Paul said.
'She ended up losing $30,000 because she didn't want to drive an Audi anymore because she was afraid they would keep coming back.'
Paul calls the neighbourhood patrol guys every time he hears a disturbance.
'We are all fed up,' he said. 'We are fed up with being scared every time we hear a noise, one day someone is going to hurt one of these kids – and then they will be the one who pays for it.
'I think most of us are afraid we will do something extreme if we find them in our homes.'
Richa Walia, 26, told Daily Mail Australia she was asleep when her home was broken into by four Apex gang members.
'I was so scared I came down stairs and saw they had spoken to my parents, I have heard stories about them and thought they had hurt my mother and father.'
The attack happened in mid-July and she is still afraid in her home. 'It just isn't the same, I am afraid during the day and at night,' she said. 'You think you can be safe in your own home - well I don't feel like that anymore,' she said.
Four young men were involved in the break in - they stole two cars and a mobile phone after smashing through a window to get into the house.
'The were all holding weapons, two had baseball bats and two had metal poles,' she said. 'They were tall and really skinny and they were wearing hoodies and tracksuit pants. 'They were yelling at us to give them the car keys. 'I just wanted to do what they said so they wouldn't hurt us.'
Paul who is a father-of-two said the gangs hitting his neighbourhood are mostly African. 'There will be a group of like six Sudanese but sometimes there will be one or two white kids with them,' he said.
An official patrol group has been set up by residents after smaller groups set out to protect their own streets earlier this year. Louie told Daily Mail Australia he never intended to be part of a big group but realised it was important to help keep everyone safe.
'We patrol 24 hours a day seven days a week,' he said. 'Police resources are spread too thin so we are here to help'. He just wants everybody in his community to feel safe.
'A lady called us the other day because she saw people looking through the windows of her house.
'We got there and she had already called the police. They didn't show up in the 45 minutes we were there. 'I understand they might have more important things to do but for this lady having a teenager looking through her window was important. It was the most important thing happening to her,' he said.
The group of patrol men don't take photos, use video cameras or weapons against the youths. 'We just show up when people call – as soon as the kids see us they just scatter.'
The patrol group was labelled as 'vigilantes' by police when they first started operating in the area. 'We tried to stop because we didn't want to get in trouble but we had so many messages calling for help we started up again,' Louie said.
Paul said he believes the patrol groups are leading to a decrease in violent offences in the area. 'I called the patrol group and the police when I heard a lady screaming the other night and the patrol was there in three minutes,' he said. 'The kids know they can't get away with doing things here now,'
Paul wants more support for victims. 'These poor people have to go back home and they can't sleep at night,' he said.
The damage they cause to people's families is horrific, they come into your home with knives and other weapons in front of you kids. 'These people need to be offered counselling if they have been targeted.'
Louie wants more police on the road. 'If there were more police we wouldn't need to be out there I'd be out there with the kids and wife.'
He said he feels torn leaving his family at night but doesn't know what else to do to keep them and others safe. 'She is scared I am leaving her on own, it has caused a lot of fights,' he said.
He would like offenders to be locked up and the local police station to be open 24-hours a day.
Three concerned fathers have told Daily Mail Australia their families have got a plan in place for when their home are attacked by the gang of youths.
Paul's children, who are 10 and 12, have been told if their house if under attack they need to make their way to the 'safe room'.
And then there are the charming Muslim immigrants
A Pakistani migrant taxi driver declared 'all Australian women are sluts and deserve to be raped', asked female passengers if they were virgins and 'groped' the thigh of a woman he picked up from a bar late at night, a tribunal has heard.
Western Sydney resident Afzal Nazir was found not to be a 'fit and proper person' to drive a taxi by the NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal on Wednesday.
The decision came after it heard harrowing details of five encounters female passengers had with him over just two months he spent behind the wheel, including him allegedly rubbing a frightened woman's leg before asking her out for curry.
One frightened female passenger who stepped into Mr Nazir's car said he was 'highly agitated' and ranted at her for 20 minutes, including 'that all Australian women are sluts and deserve to be raped because of the way they dress'.
'He said his wife would never dress like Aussie women do as she is a respectable person and has studied for many years,' tribunal senior member Geoffrey Walker said in his decision.
Mr Nazir told the woman he had paid $2000 to enter Australia and 'had not simply arrived on a boat and people should respect him'.
'He said Australians do not care about true relationships, they all want to f*** each other and then f*** them off.'
During his ravings, he began striking the steering wheel and 'yelling about how dumb Australian people are as they constantly mix up his race and said how stupid they could be, that they could not tell where he was from.'
He then detailed an incident with a drunk person the night before and said 'if that happened in his country he would pull out his AK 47 and put 14 bullets in his head' while pretending to fire a gun at her.
One female passenger said when she entered the taxi Mr Nazir told her: 'You're wearing pants so I am thinking you are a lesbian' and demanded she agree with him.
The tribunal heard another woman was picked up at a pub and he told her she looked 'hot' tonight, before asking if she had a boyfriend - and for her name, age and street address. The woman said he asked her 'why I was out alone if I'm such a 'hot' girl and then started rubbing her leg because it looked 'cold'.
Mr Nazir then took the car into an industrial area, the tribunal heard, and 'he asked her if she liked Indian food and whether she would like to go out for some curry'.
Another complaint detailed how he picked up two young women from Fannys nightclub, asked them why they were virgins. The complainant said when they asked him to stop talking about 'sexual relations... he simply laughed and kept talking about it'.
Roads and Maritime Service cancelled Mr Nazir's driving authorities in early 2012. He was also accused of putting a passenger in his boot and of being rude to a pregnant woman.
The tribunal ruled he was not a fit and proper person to drive a taxi - because he would be highly likely to receive future complaints.
He denied all the allegations and argued there might have been a series of misunderstandings, but the tribunal ruled that was 'improbable'.
'He has accepted no responsibility for his misconduct,' said tribunal senior member Prof Walker.
Amber Rudd rules out Australians having easier immigration to UK after Brexit
Hopes of Australians scoring easier access to live and work in the United Kingdom once Britain leaves the European Union have been dashed, with Home Secretary Amber Rudd, saying she has no plans to increase the UK's intake of Australian migrants.
The comments by Mrs Rudd, a prominent campaigner for Britain staying in the EU betray a split within the Tory cabinet over the idea, with the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson promising to campaign for change just last month at a joint media conference with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
The UK will begin the process of leaving the European Union by March 30, 2017, and forge a unique relationship with the EU, says British Prime Minister Theresa May.
Mrs Rudd also poured cold water on the idea of a free movement zone for Brits and Australians, as is being pushed by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott who is in London and due to appear at a fringe event hosted by the conservative Spectator magazine on Tuesday local-time.
Prominent Leave campaigners including the conservative Member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, raised the prospect during the EU Referendum campaign, in which the estimated 87,000 Australians living in Britain were entitled to vote.
When asked by Fairfax Media if there was any chance free movement or relaxed visa requirements might become reality post-Brexit, Mrs Rudd ruled out the idea. "There are no plans to increase immigration from Australia," Mrs Rudd said.
The Home Secretary praised an existing visa young person's access scheme as "particularly very good."
Mrs Rudd said everything is under review but cautioned: "I do think that particular scheme does work very well so I wouldn't envisage any change," she said.
Mrs Rudd was a prominent campaigner for the Remain campaign but was appointed Home Secretary by Prime Minister Theresa May. Mrs May has been criticised for having not released details about how Britain's exit from the EU will take shape, apart from her now commonly mocked refrain "Brexit means Brexit."
Asked how difficult it was to sit in a Cabinet dominated by Leavers, shed told an audience at a fringe festival hosted by The Times she accepted the result. "We know some things about what Brexit means but there's a lot within that that we don't know, 'Brexit means Brexit' but there's a lot to be negotiated and discussed," she said.
The Home Secretary's comments are a blow for Australia which is urging the British government to relax its tough rules for lower-paid migrants but also in stark contrast to the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, a noted Australiaphile's recent commitment to campaign for change.
"To my mind, I think it will be a fantastic thing if we had a more sensible system … this is something where I think we can make progress and I am confident that we will," Mr Johnson said during a joint-media conference with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop in London last month.
Australia believes its best chances of securing Australians an easier chance to work and live in the UK lie in any future trade deal which both countries are keen to strike once Britain leaves the EU.
"It is something that we were able to achieve with the United States and I certainly look forward to an increasing number of business visas, student visas and work visas between Australia and the UK. We have significant equities here. Australia is a significant investor in London in particular," Ms Bishop said at the same media conference.
In a bid to curb its migrant intake, the British government began deporting those who earn below £35,000 ($70,000) per year. But because of its membership of the single market, it is obliged to allow in workers from EU member countries like Bulgaria and Romania, regardless of their skills.
Net migration to the UK in 2016 is 300,000 and well over the government's target of 100,000. Net migration from EU countries is 184,000, which is just short of the total for the 188,00 migrants from non-EU countries combined. Britain will be able to drastically cuts its migrant intake from EU countries once it formally leaves the union.
Mrs Rudd wants to reduce the net migration to the "tens of thousands" by 2020 when the next general election is due.
James Skinner from the Canadian-based Commonwealth Freedom of Movement Organisation said he placed more stock in the commitments made by the Foreign Ministers.
"If Mrs Rudd has no plans to promote free movement or relax visas at this time, she certainly will in the near future," Mr Skinner said.
"Over 164,000 people have signed our online petition for free movement between the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, and only recently, Boris Johnson and Julie Bishop discussed the tremendous potential for visa liberalisation between the UK and Australia. "
"Mrs Rudd's comments are certainly unrepresentative of the general population."
Prime Minister Theresa May will formally trigger Article 50, the formal process for leaving the EU in March 2017. Britain will have two-years to negotiate its exit but Cabinet Ministers have suggested it could occur sooner than 2019.
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