Australian Politics
The Albanian is in dreamland
Below is the opening of an article about his policies that makes no sense whatever. How can he have real wages growth amid inflation? Inflation REDUCES real wages across the board so that is his big problem. But the rest of his policies will in fact increase inflation. He's got all these new spending commitments that he is determined to implement but will not raise taxes to pay for them.
So it's back to the printing press to create the money needed. And that is by definition inflationary. Government addiction to spending beyond their means has given us big inflation and it is only a cut in spending that will cure it. And as your money buys less and less, we are in for a period of harshly reduced standards of living. Feel sorry for pensioners. Albo is even robbing them
Anthony Albanese says he will pursue a “large” legislative agenda beyond what Labor committed to at the election – despite growing economic challenges – with the October budget to be focused on finding savings without raising taxes.
In an interview with The Australian, the Prime Minister said he remained hopeful there would be real wage growth in this term of parliament and ruled out new emergency Covid support payments if there are outbreaks beyond this winter.
The comments come ahead of the new parliament resuming next week, with the government under pressure over the rising cost of living, interest rate hikes and a clash with the Greens over legislation enshrining a new 43 per cent emissions reduction target in law.
With rising interest rates, inflation and a worsening global economy making budget management more challenging, Mr Albanese said he would not be walking away from any of Labor’s pre-election commitments, including more money for childcare, skills and aged care.
Mr Albanese said there would be no new revenue measures in the October budget, with the focus instead on finding savings. He said there was “always a need for policy changes” to respond to changing circumstances, but the government would remain true to its mandate.
“We want to be a reforming government but we will be acting on our commitments.
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Climate Change, the art of sophistry
Sophistry is the use of clever but false arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving.
Climate alarmists who know the world is not coming to an imminent end (and that they aren’t going to save the planet from apocalyptic destruction), are creating clever – but false – arguments.
There are plenty of them around in the ranks of the World Economic Forum, United Nations, and the world’s political parties. They are, to their eternal shame, exponents of the subtle art of sophistry.
These people continually end sentences with words like ‘climate action’, ‘tackle Climate Change’, and ‘climate is an existential threat’. This juxtaposition of words should not be used together in any sentence in the English language. They make no sense yet have become modern catchphrases.
The best way to combat the vagueness of climate alarmism is to present facts and specificity. Start with declaring what Climate Change is in clear English. Put simply, it is a change in government energy policy.
What is the estimated cost of changing energy policy from fossil fuel, oil and gas to wind and solar?
In 2018, a Yale University study in America estimated their cost of conversion to a new energy policy would be $4.5 trillion. Therefore, the ridiculous dismissal of cost by the Australian Labor-Green-Teal alliance is questionable.
In the recent Federal election, changing energy policy was taken out of the debate. The then Liberal government committed to the nebulous 2050 emission reduction target and a 35 per cent emission reduction by 2030 thus making changing energy policy a by-partisan approach. The current Labor government and all state governments are committing to even more ambitious changes to energy policies.
The costing of the changing energy policy was not debated because it was not an election issue. Nor was the potential harm to standards of living for almost all Australians.
The Labor government does not wave a magic wand and gift us a different energy infrastructure. There is a costly and onerous transition period that will have significant economic ramifications.
The good news is that there are in place principles of economics. These principles can assist in an educated and advanced society to calculate and plan efficiently such transitions over a period of time. Once we eliminate the alarmist rhetoric, we can establish that time is on our side and one of our greatest allies in changes to the energy policy.
Every major government policy change involves a cost-benefit analysis, yet the detail is lacking in the new Labor government regarding energy policy changes. The Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has a template of the major steps in a cost-benefit analysis which requires you to follow a logical sequence of nine steps. Step 5 of that logical sequence is referred to as ‘Monetise (place dollar values on) impacts’. Step 6 is ‘Discount future costs and benefits to obtain present values’. In other words, how will the cost of the change in energy policy impact on our current interest rates and current inflation?
If such a cost-benefit analysis has been conducted, why is it not made available for debate and scrutiny? If it has not been conducted, then all sides of a responsible Parliament should be demanding such an analysis.
If there is to be a policy shift from fossil fuel, petroleum, and natural gas to wind and solar energy what will be the impact of the products currently made from fossil fuels?
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) at least 144 products used commonly in the community come from fossil fuel. Each of those products produce other products and this multiplier effect penetrates almost every aspect of society until the effect of fossil fuels reaches thousands of products. This list was done in 2013 and has been growing ever since as new inventions are created.
The list contains such items as clothing, motor vehicle bodies, and parts, car tyres (and not just fuel-injected cars but electric motor vehicles as well), parts for white goods, water pipes, cortisone, aspirin, antiseptics (what will happen if there is another Covid breakout), fertilisers, house paint, eyeglasses, artificial limbs, dentures, heart valves, and the list go on and on.
Fossil fuel and petroleum products have a significant impact on our food supplies and every doctor’s surgery, hospital, and operating theatre has equipment that owes its existence to fossil fuels in some way.
Consider for example a factory manufacturing site. Almost every item of machinery owes its existence in some way to fossil fuel. The more the federal Labor government and state governments phase out fossil fuel the scarcer the items of production become. The scarcer, the more expensive and the greater cost of production. The greater the cost of production the greater the end price to the consumer. Multiply this by almost every consumable item in the Australian market and the result is economic disaster.
The Labor government must have a costed plan for this potential outcome. If they have, they should make it public. If they have not, it would be an extraordinary act of irresponsibility.
Governments in Australia seem to have confined principles of economics to the desk drawer never to see the light of day. They are also not interested in science. One of our best scientists, Professor Ian Plimer has written extensively opposing the climate apocalypse theory and in an article in May 2022 he scientifically showed that Australia is already at Net Zero emissions.
Prime Minister Albanese was asked, ‘What do you want your legacy as Prime Minister to be?’
His one-word response was, ‘Climate.’
He may be poor at the art of sophistry, but it is sophistry, nevertheless.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/07/climate-change-the-art-of-sophistry/
**************************************************The astonishing data that may prove masks DON'T work as Covid cases in Singapore and New Zealand OVERTAKE Australia
New data shows Covid cases in Singapore and New Zealand have overtaken Australia in the latest Omicron wave despite ultra-strict mask mandates.
Masks are worn everywhere in the densely-populated Asian city while New Zealanders are forced to wear them in all indoor public places, such as shopping centres and libraries.
But both now have higher case numbers per million than Australia, where compulsory mask rules have been abandoned in most indoor settings.
These figures appear to smash the push now on in Australia for a return to mask mandates, which are currently compulsory only on public transport and in aged care and healthcare centres.
Since Australian mandates began to ease last October, per capita case numbers in Singapore exceeded, matched or lagged behind Australia, before rising ahead again.
In New Zealand, case numbers were six weeks behind Australia's Omicron wave in January, but since February they have matched or exceeded Australia.
Death rates in New Zealand also overtook Australia per capita at the start of March, despite the Kiwis being on the highest code red mask mandate restrictions - and have stayed higher ever since.
New Zealanders are told to wear a mask whenever they leave home. The country has a traffic light system of restrictions and was on code red until April when it moved to code orange.
Under code red, Kiwis had to wear masks at universities and colleges and in schools from Year 4 up, and when visiting early learning centres.
Masks also had to be worn in public places like shops, shopping malls, cafes, bars, restaurants, libraries, hairdressers and beauty salons.
All indoors events and indoor gatherings needed to be masked up,
Masks also need to be worn on domestic flights, taxis, ride-sharing cars and public transport, plus healthcare, judicial, remand and aged care centres.
But masks don't need to be worn outdoors or while exercising.
Since April, masks are not now needed in schools, indoor events, museums and libraries or at hospitality venues, but must still be worn everywhere else.
The country is tipped to return to code red on Thursday as NZ case numbers surge.
In Singapore, death rates dropped below Australia in April after racing ahead between October and Christmas, but are now surging wildly and are set to overtake Australia once more.
The Singapore findings were shared on Twitter by Australian National University infectious diseases professor Peter Collignon as debate rages on the need for masks.
The post, originally made by a Singapore resident, added: 'Singapore has never dropped its mask mandates. Masks are required indoors at all times.
'Australians aren't wearing masks much at all. Let's compare the data.'
The data has been revealed as Victorian children over the age of eight are now asked to wear a mask in classrooms until the end of winter amid a spike in cases.
The state government has insisted the new advice is not a mask mandate, with students encouraged to wear a mask indoors and on public transport.
Parents have described the new rules as a 'mandate by stealth' but former Labor Leader Bill Shorten said kids should be encouraged to wear masks where possible.
'We've had 300 days of home-schooling, and the schools closed,' he told Karl Stefanovic during an appearance on the Today Show on Tuesday morning.
'To me it's a no-brainer, do you want your child sick at home or do you want them running around wearing a mask?' the father of one said.
NSW and Victorian health ministers have both so far resisted the growing calls for a return to mask mandates, but critics say the looming state elections in October and November are the main reason behind any delay in bringing them back.
The new figures come as it was revealed the median age of those dying from Covid in Australia is now 83 years old, the same age as the nation's average life expectancy.
The federal health department's latest Covid report explodes the myths being used to drive Australian authorities to re-introduce mask mandates and continue having Covid cases isolate for seven days.
The data comes as St Vincent's Hospital in Sydney said they have just 'one or two' patients in ICU - with top doctors confirming the winter wave is far less severe than those to have previously hit Australia.
'We certainly don't have many,' confirmed a hospital spokesman on Monday. 'It's not presenting so much on the very acute side, where patients need ventilation.'
The vast majority of those who have caught Covid are under 50, with 3,121,953 cases so far. Just 293 people under 50 have died of the virus since the pandemic began.
The statistics show that since Australia's mass vaccination rollout began, those under 50 face a less than one in 10,000 chance of dying from Covid.
'The median age of all those infected is 31 ... [but] the median age of those who died is 83,' the latest federal health department 'Coronavirus At A Glance' report states.
Australia's average life expectancy is 82.9 years of age.
Most killed by Covid were men over 70 and women over 80, accounting for 7,585 deaths out of the nation's total virus death toll of 10,582 as of 3pm on Friday.
And even if Covid breaks out among elderly frail residents in aged care centres, more than 95 per cent of those infected will survive.
Of the 63,875 who caught Covid in Australian aged care centres, 60,771 recovered, with less than 1 in 20 of infected residents dying, for a tragic toll of 3,104.
NSW Premier Dom Perrottet admitted on Monday that the current flu wave was now a bigger threat than Covid. 'At the moment, the current strand of influenza is more severe than the current strands of COVID,' he told 2GB.
Doomsday modelling by the Burnet Institute for the NSW government last year said the state's health system could cope with up to 947 Covid patients in ICU.
But NSW currently has just 64 Covid cases in ICU across the state with only 13 on ventilators, according to NSW Health.
The stats have also destroyed claims that Omicron is super-infectious, with infection rates staying constant all year long.
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There are two minsters in the Labor government that could be its undoing
Not surprisingly, the mainstream media has provided a prolonged honeymoon for the Albanese Labor government. Gosh, so many of the high-profile, superstar journalists – ok, they’re not really superstars but they like to think they are pretty damn good – are only now beginning to recover from the harsh years of the fascist Morrison government whose very existence they had failed to predict back in 2019.
It must have been exhausting, dragging up unconvincing material about what a horrible man Morrison is, although copying Labor’s media releases made life a whole lot easier. For my money, Morrison is really just an ordinary family man from the burbs with an intense desire to be PM. (All PM’s must, by definition, be driven by this ambition.) After nine years in office and after forgetting far too many centre-right principles, most importantly prudent budgetary management, the Morrison government probably deserved to be booted out.
But I don’t go along with the current sugary commentary on the Albanese government, including his ‘triumphal’ overseas trips. What was he really doing hanging out on the fringes of the NATO meeting in Spain? And what about the nice trip to Ukraine to catch up with Volodymyr in his khaki t-shirt? These sorts of trips always come with a price tag.
Even Peta Credlin thinks that Albo may be the man for the times. Certainly, Albo has been around for a long time in politics and will be keen to avoid blowing things up too quickly. But his ministerial experience has always involved spending money and doing deals. He has never held an economic portfolio, doesn’t understand budgets and is certainly not good at saving money.
On the face of it, Jim Chalmers seems as safe a pair of hands as his predecessor, Josh Frydenberg. Of course, there are various ways of interpreting this statement from ‘we’re completely rooned’ to ‘should be ok.’ Jim at least seems to grasp the need to repair the budget by reducing the growth of spending – he would struggle to actually cut government expenditure. But when all he can do is bang on about cutting out ‘waste and rorts’ we know that any repair will be very marginal.
The trouble is that what Jim identifies as ‘waste and rorts’ doesn’t really add up to a hill of beans. In his mind – and in the minds of most Labor parliamentarians – any regional spending program is pork-barreling. But Labor has its own constituencies to please and so other spending – aka pork-barreling – is likely to simply fill the gap.
As for cutting back on the use of contractors and consultants, believe it when it happens. The big consulting firms are actually better buddies of Labor than the Coalition. Getting multinational companies to pay more tax is another Labor favourite, but again only believe it when it actually happens – which might be in a few decades’ time. But all up, Jim is likely to muddle through and whatever he fails to achieve with fiscal policy in terms of taming inflation will, in all likelihood, be made up by monetary policy, with bigger and faster increases in interest rates.
The real potential for the Albanese government imploding emanates from the actions of two other men – Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change and Energy (note the order, it’s not accidental) and Tony Burke, Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations and the Arts (aka the Yarts). Both come from New South Wales, both have high opinions of themselves as politicians and policy thinkers and both are capable of being manipulated by grasping rent-seekers.
Take Bowen – shall we call him B1 – whose illustrious ministerial career involved the uncontrolled flood of illegal immigrants by boat, the failed Malaysia solution and the absurd Grocery Watch scheme that never got off the ground. He even wrote a book about Australia’s greatest treasurers and included Wayne Swan in the list. (He could always have an alternative career as a comedian.)
When it comes to his current ministerial responsibilities, his lack of knowledge of the key features of the energy system is frightening. Driven by activist bureaucrats, ambitious advisers and self-seeking business types, he will always be prone to take positions which win the applause of the deep-green crowd while ignoring the needs and preferences of ordinary punters. Notwithstanding the fact that the main problem facing the National Electricity Market is the lack of investment in dispatchable 24/7 generation, Bowen has sought to double down with the claim that we need even more investment in intermittent renewable energy. In point of fact, forcing more renewables into the grid – either by mandate or more subsidies – will hasten the exit of coal-fired power stations. Note here between 60 and 70 per cent of generation in the NEM is still from coal.
As for the crazy idea of bankrolling an ugly and unpopular tapestry of new transmission lines to connect up renewables, good luck with that one, B1. There is already widespread opposition to the transmission lines that have been approved. Let’s face it, who wants those gigantic pylons in their backyard?
In the likely event that blackouts, load shedding and soaring electricity prices become commonplace, the Albanese government will be running for cover, no doubt with all sorts of excuses. Those canny business types who are stocking up on diesel generators may do very well in due course.
Tony Burke – B2 here – also has some radical ideas which he wants to impose on us as soon as possible. Obviously, he and Sally (McManus, secretary of the ACTU) are close and he needs to deliver what the unions demand, given their very useful contributions to the Labor Party.
Ignoring the fact that the labour market is still a market – businesses will only employ workers if it is a worthwhile thing to do – Burke is planning an assault on casual work and labour hire firms. He wants all jobs to be permanent with the full range of entitlements, including domestic violence leave.
Wage growth which at least matches the rate of inflation is also on his agenda. After consulting with the trade unions and big business, he will rig the enterprise bargaining rules to kick-start the process in a way that pleases Sal and her pals.
My prediction of the fate of the Albanese government is that much hinges on B1 and B2. Both men have the potential to blow things up, making the next election winnable for the Coalition.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/07/b1-and-b2-spell-trouble/ ?
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Also see my other blogs. Main ones below:
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM -- daily)
http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
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Evelyn Rae, a conservative Australian political commentator
Margo Robbie -- a beautiful australian
My son Joe at ANU
One of the happiest pictures ever -- Cleo Smith, aged 4
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