Australian Politics
Thursday, December 14, 2023
ATAR results 2023: Wake-up call for school leavers as the income gap between low and high achievers is revealed
This is an expected result but caution about causation is needed. School exam performance is highly correlated with IQ so the high ATAR scorers would be brighter -- and that alone tends to lead to economic success. ATAR scores will mainly be an indicator, not a cause of future success
Students who achieve a high ATAR score will earn up to $33,000 more than their peers by the time they reach their 30s, new research has revealed.
The findings, unveiled during the week when year 12 students receive their ATAR scores, indicate a strong correlation between the attained ATAR level and income levels by the age of 30.
'Individuals with a higher ATAR are more likely to earn a higher income,' said Dr Silvia Griselda from e61 Institute, one of the authors of a new study said.
The e61 paper 'What's in an ATAR? How can university admission scores predict future income?' used data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that draws a link between income levels taken from tax returns and ATAR scores.
At the age of 30, Australians with an ATAR below 70 will have a median annual income of approximately $70,000 in 2022 dollars.
Those with an ATAR between 70 and 80 earn slightly above $75,000.
A score in the 80-90 range correlates with a median salary just surpassing $80,000.
For ATARs falling between 90 and 95, the median salary increases to nearly $90,000, while scores in the 95-98 range leads to a median salary of almost $95,000. ATARs exceeding 98 are linked to a median salary close to $105,000.
In comparison, 30-year-old Aussie workers without a degree earn a median salary of just under $60,000 a year.
The research found people who choose not to pursue a university education and enter the workforce directly from high school typically see an initial rise in income.
However, these advantages tend to diminish by the age of 25.
Dr Griselda said school-leavers who achieve a high ATAR often receive priority admission to esteemed academic programs, particularly in fields such as medicine, finance, and law, boosting their earning potential compared to their peers.
Analysis by the e61 Institute found those who got an ATAR score over 98 will earn a median salary of $33,000 more by age 30 than those with a score below 70
She also noted that the careers of high achievers also benefited from networks they gained through their parents and expensive schooling.
While the link between a high ATAR and a high income is unmistakable, it's important to note a considerable income variation within each ATAR band.
For example, among 30-year-olds with ATARs above 95, the top 10 per cent of earn annual income surpassing $156,000, whereas the bottom 10 per cent in that band earn less than $30,000 per year.
This income disparity is also notable among 30-year-old workers without university degrees. Despite having a median income just under $60,000, the top 10 per cent in this group earn over $115,000 each year.
It comes as 67,234 high school graduates received their HSC marks via text at 6am on Thursday morning, with ATAR results following at 9am.
Year 12 applications through the University Admissions Centre are currently at the lowest level in a decade as fewer school leavers pursue a degree.
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Kathleen Folbigg wins bid to quash her baby killing convictions
A great injustice rectified, finally
The woman who was once branded Australia’s worst female serial killer has been acquitted of killing her four children after a 20 year fight for justice.
Kathleen Folbigg spent two decades in prison after she was found guilty of causing the deaths of her four children before she was released in June after an inquiry found there was “reasonable doubt” about her guilt.
After she was pardoned and released, Ms Folbigg asked for her case to be referred to the Court of Criminal Appeal in a bid to overturn her convictions for three counts of murder, one count of manslaughter, and one count of maliciously inflicting grievous bodily harm.
After a month of deliberation, the court on Thursday determined to overturn the convictions for the charges.
Chief Justice Andrew Bell, Justice Julie Ward and Chief Justice Ian Harrison said there was “now reasonable doubt as to Ms Folbigg’s guilt”.
They quashed her convictions and acquitted her of the historic crimes.
A crowd of supporters burst into a round of applause after the verdict was delivered and an emotional Ms Folbigg wiped away tears.
Speaking to journalists outside court ahead of the ruling, a longtime supporter of Ms Folbigg said the decision was “a long time coming”.
It is the end of a long road to exoneration for the woman previously demonised over the deaths of her four children.
The mother was in 2003 jailed for 40 years for the murder of Patrick (eight months), Laura (10 months) and Sarah (19 months) as well as the manslaughter of her son Caleb (19 days).
All of her children died suddenly and none reached their second birthday.
Ms Folbigg steadfastly maintained her innocence throughout her two decades behind bars, and was supported by an inquiry into the children’s sudden deaths earlier this year.
The inquiry raised reasonable doubt that the Folbigg children could have died due to natural causes or a rare genetic mutation.
New expert medical evidence published in March 2021 revealed that Sarah and Laura Folbigg carried the CALM2 genetic mutation, which can cause cardiac problems, irregular heartbeats and lead to sudden death.
This fatal genetic variant would not have been investigated at the time of the children’s deaths because it was not discovered by medical scientists until years later, the inquiry was told.
Tom Bathurst KC, who led the inquiry, found in his report that Ms Folbigg shared the same genetic mutation as her daughters.
Experts concluded Patrick had likely died due to a brain injury suffered during an epileptic seizure, but they were unable to determine the cause of death for Caleb.
In his report, Mr Bathurst determined there was an “identifiable cause” of three of the children’s deaths and no direct evidence that Ms Folbigg killed her children.
Ms Folbigg had served 20 years of her 40-year sentence when she was pardoned and released from Clarence Correctional Centre in June.
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Townsville cops ‘helpless’, residents terrified as young crims wreak havoc
Kid-glove treatment of young Aboriginal offenders is the root of the problem
Police Commissioner Katarina Carroll will fly to Townsville after three weeks of unrelenting and violent youth crime leaving cops feeling “defeated” and locals terrified. SEE
On a single day last week in the space of six hours officers were called to 120 jobs, most involving stolen cars, as cops the North Queensland town battle the worst spate of crime many had ever seen.
One Townsville station has no police vehicles left, and is being forced to borrow cars from surrounding precincts. It’s understood eight of the region’s 139-car fleet are sidelined in Townsville.
In the last week alone more than 60 cars have been stolen and 150 homes broken into, with the young criminals turning on the police targeting their cars and the officers in them across multiple nights.
Townsville mum Melissa Young-Florence broke down in tears while talking about how she was chased and rammed by youths in a stolen car on December 7. Picture: Natasha Emeck
Townsville mum Melissa Young-Florence broke down in tears while talking about how she was chased and rammed by youths in a stolen car on December 7. Picture: Natasha Emeck
The conditions have become so bad, one officer speaking anonymously to The Courier-Mail said “it’s the worst it’s ever been in respect of the level of intended harm to emergency services,” a source said.
“Officers feel helpless and fear for their safety. They will keep turning up for work to keep the community safe, but they worry what is being done to keep them safe.”
Multiple police sources told The Courier-Mail how officers are afraid to go to work as juveniles target police cars – and now ambulances – night-after-night.
Sources say they are “fighting a losing battle” and were “torn apart” after a night of carnage last week where more than 120 jobs were called in over just six hours, most of those involving stolen cars.
So out of control has the issue become, officers from the specialist Public Safety Response Team (PSRT) have been flown into the city to catch the young criminals.
A terrified Townsville mum broke down in tears as she relived the terror she felt when a group of young criminals chased and rammed her across Townsville in a stolen car while she was out buying Christmas gifts.
Melissa Young-Florence has just left a Townsville shopping centre in her Land Cruiser when she was suddenly targeted by young car thieves in Aitkenvale last Thursday.
She said masked juveniles in a stolen Ford Everest — which also rammed two police cars last week — began ramming her car around 6.30pm and followed her through the streets of Aitkenvale as she desperately tried to lose them.
When she pulled up near a school to call triple-0, the youths rammed the driver’s side of her car, and one of them got out to confront her.
“He threatened me and said: ‘Don’t f**k with our gang, you f***ing b*ch,” she said.
“They took a weapon out and started smashing the glass of the back of my LandCruiser.”
The youths continued to tail her when she returned home to Vincent, and she began to scream at the top of her lungs as they rammed her again, pushing her car onto the kerb.
“Four kids hopped out of the car. My neighbour thinks one of them had a gun, and another came to my window with a wrench to hurt me,” she said.
“One of my amazing neighbours, Damien, chased them off.
“I’ve never been so scared in my life. You don’t know what it feels like. “They were ready to kill me.”
It’s understood the young criminals are a mix of seasoned juvenile offenders, and new crooks from places like Cairns and Palm Island who police hadn’t seen before.
“It’s a generation of kids who have no respect for anything,” a police officer said. “New kids, old kids, there’s no simple fix to a festering decline of parenting.”
On Monday night, sources say one police crew had three separate stolen cars drive at them. Another police car had their tyres slashed. “We feel useless and embarrassed,” another source said. “There’s nothing we can do after our pursuit powers were taken away.
“All you can do is just turn on your bodycam and record everything.”
While no officers had been seriously injured in the rammings, sources say the mental toll was more significant. “Mentally, we are f – ked.”
The Courier-Mail understands the Townsville Watchhouse was “chockers” on Tuesday, with staff calling for back-up and a “line of police cars” waiting outside to get in.
Townsville District Officer Chief Superintendent Chris Hodgman said they charged eight offenders on 138 charges within 24 hours on Monday, bringing the total arrests for Operation Victor Romney up to 20.
One of the recent arrests was a 13-year-old Wulguru boy allegedly linked to the stolen car ram raids on a number of businesses on Saturday.
The boy has been charged with 51 offences, including 13 counts of unlawful use of a motor vehicle, 11 counts of entering the dwelling, and one count each of robbery, arson and assault. He was refused bail and is due to appear in Townsville Children’s Court at a later date.
Chief Supt Hodgman said there were still “several” outstanding targets on their list that police would continue to target this week.
He said the level of offending had increased for many of the city’s high-risk youths. “When we talk about 13 and 15-year-olds out committing life imprisonment offences at night … It is absolutely terrible for the community,” he said.
Townsville Labor MPs Les Walker and Aaron Harper said they had raised the region’s crime issues with potential premier candidates this week.
Mr Harper – who supported Deputy Premier Steven Miles as the state’s new leader – said Mr Miles “understands the situation” in regards to youth crime in Townsville. “We know it’s a serious problem and we want it fixed.”
Police Minister Mark Ryan said the Commissioner would be in Townsville on Wednesday.
Commissioner Katarina Carroll said she was closely monitoring the situation in Townsville and is being briefed multiple times each day. She intended to visit police stations and the Operations Command Centre on her visit north.
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In an inflation crisis, Labor is now squeezing Middle Australia for budget repair
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers are now faced with a double-edged political dilemma.
Middle Australia is not only paying the price of the inflation problem through higher interest rates, it is now also doing the heavy lifting to repair the federal government’s balance sheet.
While most households are acutely aware of how much more they are paying for things, particularly their mortgages, they may be less aware of how much more tax they are paying now as well.
Wednesday’s mid-year Economic and Fiscal outlook reveals the fastest growing piece of the revenue pie is the income tax take.
The share of the tax upgrades coming out of people’s pockets is now equivalent to that of corporate Australia.
The mid-year update confirms what is already known.
There are three groups wearing the pain of the economic problem and the budget problem.
The first are wage earners who are paying more for things.
The second are borrowers who are paying more through higher interest rates.
And the third are taxpayers who are paying more tax — the price of bracket creep.
Middle Australia falls into all three categories.
Economists will say this is a good thing. A necessary evil to get inflation down.
But managing the politics of this is now Chalmers’ great challenge. While the budget position is improving, the position of households continues to deteriorate.
Notable in the MYEFO forecasts is a divergence between the Treasury and the central bank on the inflation problem.
Treasury is much more optimistic about the forecasts for inflation coming down.
Considering neither the RBA or the Treasury modellers saw the problem coming in the first place, predictions about when the country comes out of it are dubious.
Nevertheless, Chalmers can claim a significant improvement in the budget position. He is on track for a likely second surplus next year.
Having succeeded in resisting more cost-of-living spending, the government has been able to bank most of the revenue gains onto the budget bottom line.
This is the responsible approach. To do otherwise would have only added to the inflation problem.
“This budget update is all about responsible economic management,” says Chalmers.
But again, the politics are difficult, with people handing over more and more of their money to the government in taxes.
Chalmers knows that there is a long game here which the government hopes will eventually pay political dividends.
MYEFO was another downpayment on re-building the coffers for the May budget next year, the last May budget before the election, when politics and the polls will likely have a greater impact on where it all goes from there.
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Also see my other blogs. Main ones below:
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM -- daily)
http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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