Labor's 'surplus' Budget is just smoke and mirrors - and Aussies should be worried...

PETER VAN ONSELEN is nearly right below. The debt is a problem. But, insofar as it is domestic debt, inflation will wipe it out. The real problem is the inflation, which in effect steals peoples' savings

This year's Budget highlighted just how fiscally doomed we are as a nation, even if the government attempted to hide the fact in plain sight.

And they've used a mix of deception and trickery when doing so.

Before we even got to Budget day itself, 'the surplus' was strategically leaked to the media: coming in at $9.3billion, it surprised most observers on the upside. A product of favourable terms of trade.

Sounds good, right? Wrong.

It wasn't the surplus for the coming financial year, the year all the new spending and tax cuts are slated to start. It was a surplus in the financial year that ends in just six weeks: the 2023/24 financial year.

That's come and gone. The next four financial years are all in deficit, and big time. The first is a deficit of nearly $30billion, the next year it rises to nearly $50billion. Remember, that national debt is more than one trillion dollars already.

Even just paying off the interest bill on that quantum of debt is hard. The fact we are continuing to just rack up more and more debt - with no plan to do anything about it - should be disturbing to all Australians.

And let's be clear, both sides of politics are to blame for this mess.

Budgets are supposed to be about the coming financial year, not the last. The substance of Treasurer Jim Chalmers speech focused on new spending and tax cuts that happen next financial year, spruiking income tax cuts as the 'foundation stone' of the Budget.

But by linking in an old surplus, Chalmers tried to create the false impression that all the new spending and tax cuts was happening within a fiscally prudent envelope, because he was handing down a surplus.

Only he wasn't.

It was tricky indeed for the government to try to focus backwards on the surplus in the financial year that is about to end but forwards on new spending and tax cuts in the next one.

That's called having your cake and eating it.

Making the situation even worse, via some tricky accounting there is a further $80billion of spending that isn't even counted in the wall-to-wall Budget deficits in the years to come.

And these politicians have the temerity to lecture business leaders when they think they are being less than forthcoming when quizzed for the cameras at show trials such as parliamentary committees.

What a bunch of hypocrites we have serving us in Canberra.

Unless the major political parties find a way to work together to repair the Budget's financial underpinnings, future generations are going to be unfairly gifted massive debt with difficult-to-manage annual interest payments.

A situation made worse by baked-in recurrent spending that Australians are growing used to and will find hard to live without when the day of reckoning comes and the financial tap gets turned off, as it inevitably has to.

We are living beyond our means, it's that simple. Families can't do it for long when doing their own budgeting, and neither can countries.

The only way to fix the situation is going to be via tax hikes, cuts to spending, or both. And reforms to the way we tax, and the way state and federal governments work together, also need to happen.

Most concerning, no one seems to be much bothered by government debt anymore, meaning that racking it up doesn't damage governments politically the way it used to.

We must force a change of approach, so that whoever is in power becomes more fiscally prudent.

Because both sides of politics have let spending get out of control for so long that complaints from opposition become akin to white noise.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13432587/Labors-surplus-Budget-just-smoke-mirrors-Aussies-worried-PETER-VAN-ONSELEN-reveals-damning-details-prove-Australia-road-financial-ruin.html

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Teen had been previously convicted of 84 offences but had not spent a day in custody until he killed someone

The grieving husband of a mum-of-two stabbed to death during a home invasion has recalled the haunting moment his life changed forever.

Emma Lovell, 41, and her husband Lee spent Boxing Day 2022 baking treats and playing games with their young daughters Scarlett and Kassie before the North Lakes couple enjoyed a few cocktails and went to bed early.

Several hours later, she was fatally stabbed in the heart after two teens, then both 17, broke into her home north of Brisbane at about 11.30pm.

Her partner of 22 years was also stabbed in front of their horrified daughters.

The teen, now 19, who killed Ms Lovell had been previously convicted of 84 offences but had not spent a day in custody until that night.

Mr Lovell has opened up about being attacked in his own home - and how he didn't realise his wife was gravely injured until his daughter saw she was bleeding.

'By the time I looked back at Emma, she was, like, just, like, passed out on the floor,' he told A Current Affair on Monday night.

'And when Kassie came back, she was like, 'Mum's bleeding', I'm like, 'what do you mean?'

'She's bleeding and looked at her left side and I know it was just, like, soaked with blood, you know, and then that, like, panic sets in.'

As he was rushed to hospital, other paramedics performed open heart surgery on his wife on their front lawn.

'To be at the hospital and be told that she hadn't survived was a major shock,' he recalled.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13437509/Emma-Lovell-stabbing-death-Lee-Lovell-opens-wifes-death-North-Lakes-home-two-words-changed-familys-lives-forever.html

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Homeschooling rises across Canberra post-pandemic

Since COVID lockdowns kept students out of schools, there's been a big rise in the number who now find home the best place to study.

There's been a 50 per cent increase in the numbers not going to school for their learning.

Official figures for the "home-educated" count 465 people of school age in the category in the ACT, compared with 305 just before the virus struck, and compared with only 166 just 10 years ago.

"School is an obsolete model," Ilaria Catizone says in a break between teaching a handful of homeschooled children who've come together to learn a bit of Italian.

She concedes formal schools work for some young people but not for all. The ones who don't quite fit the mould are often the ones opting out, perhaps because of bullying. Some parents told The Canberra Times they were unhappy with "woke" education, particularly on sexual matters.

Ilaria Catizone has been been schooling Audrey, 7, and Elody, 13, for the last three years. At the communal session, Elody also helps teach the younger children Italian through a game of bingo where numbers are called in Italian and pasta rings go on the numbered squares.

These kids are meeting in a community hall for their lesson, so homeschooling doesn't always happen at home. Sometimes, it's collective in that a group get together and learn.

The parents' motives vary.

Rebecca Bonazza said her daughter Skyler, 10, was bullied in her public school in Canberra.

"Bullying was rife. When she concentrates, she hums, and a lot of kids picked on her," the mother said.

"Kids just seem to be more nasty these days, and because she's a bit different she rarely wanted to go to school."

Her mother was also unhappy about the amount of mention of sex, both in class and outside - "woke", as she put it. "A lot of things they are told are a bit much," she said.

She felt homeschooling meant "super-young children" could be protected from "things on the internet".

"You can't protect your children from that but at home you can," she said.

So the mother has bought the daughter a pile of books about a string of subjects, including science and maths.

"We learn about the world, about money. And I plan to take her out into the world, to teach her things, to galleries. We have a lot of discussions. We go to the library. We go to book stores. She has a lot of books," Ms Bonazza said.

Skyler is not yet in her teens and her mother said she may go to college in years 11 and 12 to get formal qualifications.

But for now, home (and a community hall) is the place of learning.

It should be said the number of homeschoolers remains small compared with the number of on-campus schoolers, even though the percentage rise is big.

The latest official figures for the ACT have 465 children in homeschooling compared with 82,280 students across primary schools (47,174), high schools (23,926) and colleges (11,180).

But the rise upwards since COVID is unmistakable (as is the fall for public schools: 50,556 in 2023 compared with 51,153 ACT pupils in 2021).

One of the organisations promoting homeschooling is holding an information session at Downer Community Hall between 4pm and 6pm on Monday.

The organiser, Ms Catizone, said she would try to answer common questions like, "What about socialisation?", "Will my children learn enough?" and "What about university?".

She said kids had opportunities to socialise despite not going to school, with a public school's wide mix of types and backgrounds.

Her daughters' education is "interest-led". Her eldest daughter was curious and learns, even about formal subjects like mathematics.

"She learns a lot of maths through shopping or cooking or helping us do our tax returns. She's renovated her room, and that involved a lot of maths like measuring," Ms Catizone said.

"If she wants to go to university, she will do more formal maths."

Ms Catizone is a vegetarian and, at home, there is an interest in "ethical behaviour" which prompted her daughter to research vegetarianism, both in terms of food but also fashion.

The teenager is interested in make-up, and that provides two fields of learning. "She's done research on ethical make-up", and the daughter has researched "make-up through the ages".

"It's very important for them to do their own research," the mother said.

She rejects the idea schooling children at home gives parents an opportunity to indoctrinate children in the parents' values.

In response to the idea, she says religious schools do the same.

Ms Catizone is a convert to homeschooling but she also concedes it doesn't suit everyone. It is obviously only for those with some money and time.

There is a class aspect.

Parents who both work fixed and long hours to just about pay the bills may not be convinced about homeschooling. For them, public schools are the only option.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8626954/homeschooling-rises-across-canberra-post-covid-pandemic/

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Overseas student numbers add up to new election battlefront

Are the government and opposition on a unity ticket when it comes to migration? They share the aims of reducing the migrant intake as well as cutting back on the number of international students. Both sides have even put some figures on their ambitions.

The context of this seeming agreement is the massive surge in migrant numbers over the past two years, ever since the pandemic restrictions were lifted. The most recent figure for net overseas migration – the difference between long-term arrivals and long-term departures – was 549,000 in the year ending in the September quarter last year. This is a historic high.

The largest single group in the NOM by far is international students (50 per cent), followed by permanent migrants (25 per cent). Only 5 per cent of the NOM is temporary skilled workers. To reduce the NOM, it is absolutely essential to reduce the number of new international students.

It is clear the net migrant inflow has had a number of negative effects and is unsustainable. The fact the vast majority of these newly arriving migrants are destined for Sydney or Melbourne is also an important consideration.

Education Minister Jason Clare has come under fire over claims he made on the weekend that pro-Palestine chants such as ‘from the river to the sea’ could mean different things to different people. The Daily Telegraph’s Tim Blair slammed the Education Minister after he implied that the anti-Israel slogan More
With blockages to any rapid increase in the supply of new housing, it has been apparent for some time that migration of the scale we have seen has placed additional pressure on housing, particularly for rent. This in turn has been associated with extraordinarily low vacancy rates as well as soaring rents. (The figure of only 4 per cent of properties being rented to international students is highly misleading: it’s the change that matters, not the average figure.)

At the same time, migrants have taken jobs across a variety of fields, including in areas of significant workforce shortage. International students work predominantly in hospitality and retailing, but also fill jobs in aged care and childcare. Interestingly, very few migrants, including recently arrived ones, work in construction. According to the Grattan Institute, a mere 0.5 per cent of all construction workers are on temporary skill visas.

Multiple surveys indicate a very strong preference among voters for the migrant intake to be significantly reduced. Both the Coalition, in the past, and Labor, until recently, have been wont to ignore public opinion on this point, preferring to accede to the demands of educational institutions, businesses and property developers for large migrant numbers.

Weirdly, most state governments have also supported large migrant intakes – there are specific state visas – notwithstanding the fact that many of the costs of recently arrived migrants are borne by them. The Treasury continues to push for high immigration on the basis of assumption-driven estimates of the net fiscal benefits of permanent skilled migrants, who actually make up a relatively small proportion of the NOM.

So what are the positions of the two parties? The Labor government is now planning for the NOM to come in at 395,000 this financial year, an increase of 20,000 from its most recent estimate. Recall here that Treasury had estimated the figure at only 315,000 in last year’s budget. Next financial year, Labor is planning for the NOM to be only 260,000, then 255,000 in the subsequent financial year. These figures are still well in excess of the long-run average for the NOM.

The government is also attempting to reduce the number of international students, which is currently at an all-time high. Various measures have been put in place, such as insisting on higher levels of competence in English. Visa rejection rates for applicants from certain countries have risen. The overall rate of acceptance for students from China, however, remains close to 100 per cent.

Education Minister Jason Clare has released a new policy on controlling numbers of international students, backed up by legislation. It talks about “sustainable growth”, which on the face of it, doesn’t look like a decline. Certain “dodgy” colleges are being targeted, which rather begs the question of why enrolments were ever allowed in these colleges.

With some 1400 institutions enrolling international students, the proposal is for the minister to negotiate soft caps on international student enrolments with each one, with account being taken of efforts by them to build additional accommodation for international and domestic students.

If that sounds like a bureaucratic lake of treacle, you wouldn’t be wrong. In particular, the leaders of the Group of Eight are sighing with relief, content in the belief they will not have to reduce their lucrative intake of international students. The numbers at some universities are just astonishing. Sydney University has more than 35,000 international students, mainly from China, and they account for close to 50 per cent of all enrolments. Last year, Sydney University recorded a surplus – we can call this a profit – of around $1.4bn, on which no tax is paid.

As I have explained before, the idea that international education is an export industry is stretching a point. But whereas other exporting companies, particularly our mining companies, pay tax on their profits, the universities do not. In many ways, international education looks more like a racket than a normal industry, benefiting the institutions and the highly paid staff but creating few spillover benefits for the wider community.

There is also the very important issue of the diminution in the quality of the offerings for domestic students. They are commonly forced to undertake group assignments with international students with very poor language skills. They end up doing all the work, but the final mark is shared by the whole group. Last time I looked, degrees are awarded to individuals, not groups. There is also the issue of cheating, which is not well-controlled.

The Coalition’s policy as laid down in its budget-in-reply speech is in two main parts. First, the permanent migrant intake will be reduced from 185,000 to 140,000, with slight increases in subsequent years. Secondly, there will be a concerted effort to reduce the level of international student enrolments at the big universities in Melbourne and Sydney, in particular. It remains to be seen if an elected Coalition government would actually stand firm in this quest to reduce international student numbers. But on the face of it, this aspect of its policy looks much more determined than Labor’s.

It boils down to a case of compare and contrast. Labor claims to have the issue of migrant numbers, under control betting that larger numbers of departures will assist in getting the net numbers down. But the policy looks weak and impractical. The Treasurer will also be keen to avoid the possibility of a recorded recession in the event of a rapid decline in migrant numbers.

The Coalition’s plan to reduce the permanent migrant program by 25 per cent looks much more aggressive. Clamping down on the number of international students will require courage and determination against a likely avalanche of self-interested resistance. It remains to be seen whether it can be achieved.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/overseas-student-numbers-add-up-to-new-election-battlefront/news-story/bf66f7d04896df901493990b5d74584f

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Also see my other blogs. Main ones below:

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM -- daily)

http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

https://immigwatch.blogspot.com (IMMIGRATION WATCH)

https://awesternheart.blogspot.com (THE PSYCHOLOGIST)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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