Australian Politics

Anthony Albanese’s cost of giving: rise in inflation raises risk of rate hike

Like most Leftists he is living in the present only. His big spending accompanied by no rise in productivity has got to mean more inflation

Anthony Albanese’s claims that billions of dollars in cost-of-living measures are helping fight inflation are in tatters, after new figures revealed a shock jump in consumer price growth that economists say could force the Reserve Bank to deliver another rate hike as early as August.

Official data on Wednesday revealed inflation jumped to 4 per cent in the year to May, from 3.6 per cent in the month before, as the end of energy rebates drove energy bills higher, petrol prices soared, and rents continued their rapid upward march.

With inflation trending higher for three consecutive months and well above the 3.4 per cent rate last December, NAB analysts delayed their prediction for any mortgage relief by six months to May 2025 after the latest date the next federal election could be held.

Analysts from UBS and Deutsche Bank joined Judo Bank chief economist Warren Hogan to predict a 14th rate hike next month.

Despite climbing worries that cost-of-living pressures are proving harder to shift, the Prime Minister in a speech on Thursday morning will spruik his government’s record of economic management, boasting that “inflation is down” since Labor took power.

In a speech to a CEDA conference in parliament on Thursday, Mr Albanese will talk up cost-of-living measures starting from Monday – including extending $300 energy bill subsidies to every household from July, a big boost to rental assistance and broadening the stage three tax cuts to include all workers.

Mr Albanese will say the measures are part of a package that has been calibrated “so that it takes pressure off people, without putting pressure on inflation”.

“Since we came to government, just over two years ago, nearly 880,000 jobs have been created – more than half a million of them, full time jobs,” Mr Albanese will the conference.

“Inflation is down. Annual real wages growth is back. Unemployment remains at near 50-year lows. And the gender pay gap is at a record low. My colleagues and I are proud of this record.”

Sky News Political Reporter Cameron Reddin says RBA Governor Michele Bullock has got her finger “on the button” to raise rates.

Independent economist Chris Richardson criticised the decisions by federal and state governments in recent budgets to pour billions of additional dollars into the economy under the guise of cost-of-living relief that could ultimately make life harder for struggling households by keeping inflation higher for longer.

“Governments are throwing a lot of money at the symptoms of the cost-of-living crisis, but that worsens the cause of it. And the cause is too many dollars chasing too little stuff,” Mr Richardson said. “Governments have abandoned the field in the inflation fight. We are fighting the inflation fight one-handed.”

Mr Richardson said the RBA’s battle to keep the nation on the “narrow path” to taming inflation without the need for a damaging recession was now more like “threading a needle”. And as inflation threatened to prove more difficult to budge, there was increasing risk of a monetary policy “mistake” that would eventually lead to a recession as the central bank was forced to hike rates to regain control.

“I don’t think the Reserve Bank will raise rates at its August meeting, but there’s now clearly a chance that they will,” he said. “And the bigger point is not whether rates go up or not in August, it’s that mortgage relief is a very, very long way away.”

Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood says the monthly inflation number gives a “snapshot” of trends.

Immediately following the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ consumer price report on Wednesday, traders in financial markets ramped up bets on the likelihood of a rate hike to approaching 50 per cent by September, and to 40 per cent as early as next month’s board meeting – or twice the roughly 20 per cent chance priced in for August before the release of the figures.

The ABS data showed that among the largest price rises over the past 12 months was a 5.2 per cent jump in housing costs, including a 7.4 per cent increase in rents and a 4.9 per cent rise in home-building costs – testament to both a lack of homes for lease and the shortage of workers and materials that continue to plague the construction sector.

The gradual end of government energy subsidies – to be renewed at commonwealth and state levels next financial year – explained a 6.5 per cent increase in power bills in the year to May, well up on the 4.2 per cent in April.

Confirming the intense pressures on household budgets, still high petrol prices meant fuel costs were 9.3 per cent up on a year earlier, the ABS data showed, even as pump prices eased through the month.

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese described the latest consumer price report as “a shocker”, saying it “places huge pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates in August”, although “it is still not a done deal”.

The monthly figures offer only a partial read on inflation and tend to be more volatile than the more complete quarterly figures, but the increase is well above the 3.8 per cent consensus forecast by economists leading into the release and enough to further worry an RBA board that has become more “vigilant” about the risks of inflation proving more persistent.

RBA governor Michele Bullock said last week “we need a lot to go our way” to bring inflation under control without having to hike interest rates again, while the central bank board for the first time flagged big-spending budgets may be making its job harder

Mr Hogan said there was now a 75 per cent chance of a rate hike at the RBA board’s August 5-6 meeting. He said it was now clear “the inflation trend in this country is back up, not down”.

“I just can’t see how they (the RBA board) can walk away from this and have any kind inflation-fighting credibility intact,” Mr Hogan told Sky News.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/rba-flags-painful-squeeze-on-family-finances-from-high-rates/news-story/289e26930eb55a9559e01a729a2524f0

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Minister Raises AUKUS Concerns Amid University Deal With Islamist Group

A move to re-establish attempts at a judicial inquiry into antisemitism at Australian universities has exposed questions around what has been called a “major national security issue” for the nation.

Federal member for Berowra Julian Leeser addressed Australia’s parliament on June 25 as he attempted to re-introduce the Commission of Inquiry into Anti-Semitism at Australian Universities Bill 2024.

The bill revolves around concerns of anti-Semitic behaviour at Australia’s universities, many of which have been the sites of pro-Palestinian encampments across the nation.

The government did not agree to bringing the bill for debate earlier in the month.

In attempting to open the topic up to debate once more, Mr. Leeser queried the relationship between the University of Sydney and the Australian branch of Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir.

Hizb ut-Tahrir self-describes as an Islamic political party that “works globally to resume the Islamic way of life.” It has been deemed a terrorist organisation in the UK.

Mr. Leeser told Parliament about his concerns, saying the Albanese government needed to list Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation (pdf).

He quoted comments from the UK Minister of State for Security, Tom Tugendhat, who said, “Free speech includes neither the promotion of terrorism, not the celebration of terrorist acts.”

Mr. Tugendhat added that it was “not acceptable” to describe Hamas as Palestine’s heroes or call the Oct. 7 events a victory. “To that, I say hear, hear,” Mr. Leeser said.

The Liberal MP said Hizb ut-Tehrir opposed democracy and embraced anti-Semitism.

Yet despite this reputation, Mr. Leeser said Hizb ut-Tehrir was now playing an “oversized” role in the University of Sydney after talks that followed encampments which were organised by the group.

He noted that every other group had packed up and left when told to, except for Hizb ut-Tehrir, which refused.

“That resistance has worked in our favour across many fronts, most particularly, being the catalyst for negotiations with the uni,” the group wrote on its Instagram account.

Most disturbingly, Mr. Leeser said, was Hizb ut-Tehrir’s success in securing a promise from the university to establish a group to review its defence investments and research.

“That’s bad enough, but this is now a major national security issue at our oldest university,” he told Parliament.

“It’s an extraordinary capitulation, at a time when the AUKUS agreements require the focus and attention of our best and brightest minds Sydney university is allowing an extremist group—an organisation listed as a terrorist organisation by our oldest ally—to run the ruler over every defence agreement.”

Mr. Leeser questioned why anyone involved with AUKUS would want to work with the University of Sydney in the wake of the agreement, and accused the university of ignoring the group’s anti-Semitic actions on campus.

Hizb ut-Tehrir, which dismissed the government’s crackdown on the swastika and Nazi salute as “virtue signalling,” were the first to announce the partnership with the University of Sydney on Friday night.

“Be in no doubt, whilst the university may be enjoying its new agreement with Hizb ut-Tehrir, the university’s relationship with the Jewish community is in absolute tatters,” Mr. Leeser said, adding that Jewish employers were leaving the university, and Jewish students had been transferring away.

“In such an environment, the government cannot just sit on their hands and do nothing,” he said.

A spokesperson for the University of Sydney denied allegations that its affiliation with Hizb ut-Tahrir would compromise Australia’s security.

“We are in constant contact with the police and the safety of our community is our absolute priority at all times,” they said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

“If we are given cause to believe there is a risk to our community, we act immediately and proportionately.”

The spokesperson said no adverse events on campus had been reported to them in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas.

“The university is not itself in a position to identify organisations that may be extremist, radicalised or potentially violent,” they said.

“This identification is made by governments and police, and we are directed by them.

“We have been assured by police we would be notified about extremist, violent or radicalised behaviour that we need to be aware of.

“No concerns have been raised with us by police or other government intelligence agencies at any time since the distressing events of Oct. 7.”

The university also noted that Hizb ut-Tahrir had not been deemed a terrorist organisation by authorities in Australia, and as a consequence, members of the group were legally able to appear at rallies and events across New South Wales.

“Our priority has always been a peaceful resolution and the agreement aligns with similar offers made at leading universities from around the world, including Harvard University and the University of Melbourne,” the spokesperson said.

“Our proposal emphasises transparency around partnerships and does not include a review of our research partnerships, including those with our valued defence and security industry partners.”

The university said suggestions the working group members would have access to sensitive information were incorrect—and that the focus would be on human rights and participants would be carefully chosen to represent the university’s student, staff, and alumni communities, as well as university leadership and independent members.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/minister-raises-aukus-concerns-amid-university-deal-with-islamist-group-5675387

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Physics students in catastrophic decline in senior high school

A catastrophic decline in the number of students studying physics in senior high school is ringing alarm bells, with one eminent scientist fearing Australia will lose the expertise it needs to be competitive as an advanced economy.

The University of Western Australia’s David Blair, who won a Prime Minister’s science prize for his role in the discovery of gravitational waves, said if school physics enrolments continued to fall at their current rate there would be no female school leavers qualified to study physics at university by 2032 and no males by 2035.

“We are on track to having no young medical physicists, no physicists to become tomorrow’s astronomers, no physicists to support the energy transition, no physicists to support the nuclear industry – not just submarines but crucial medical products – and no climate scientists,” he said.

“Hospitals employ medical physicists who are essential for producing the short-life radioactive isotopes for medical diagnoses and PET scans.

“Our mineral industry depends on a huge number of physicists.”

Data from WA, which Professor Blair said was representative of Australia as a whole, shows year 12 physics enrolments fell from 3868 in 2015 to 2436 in 2023. The number of girls studying physics fell even faster over the period. Girls made up 42 per cent of the year 12 physics cohort in 2015 but only 31 per cent by 2023.

Professor Blair and a fellow Prime Minister’s science prize winner, Susan Scott from the Australian National University, are pushing for a rethink of school science to keep children interested so more choose to study science in their senior years.

The pair are leaders of the Einstein First program which, backed by UWA, now operates in 55 schools, teaching year 3 to year 10 students modern physics topics that engage their interest, such as black holes.

Figures show that 14-year-olds are far more interested in physics after doing Einstein First. Before the course, only about a third of the girls and half the boys found physics interesting. After the course about 80 per cent of both girls and boys were interested.

A $1.5m Australian Research Council grant for the Einstein First team was announced on Friday for them to revitalise school science education and improve the training of teachers to teach modern science.

Einstein First and UWA have also just launched 12 Quantum Explorer STEM clubs, which are particularly aimed at sparking the interest of girls.

The Australian Academy of Science is also part of the push to improve science and maths education in schools, and on Tuesday launched two free online “toolboxes” for primary school teachers to help them teach these subjects.

Academy CEO Anna-Maria Arabia said that the science kit (Primary Connections) and the maths kit (reSolve) catered for teachers at whatever level of science understanding they had and helped them teach in effective ways regardless of where their students were at.

“We would love all teachers to be trained in science and maths but that is long-term,” Ms Arabia said.

The academy’s secretary for education and public awareness, Lyn Beazley, said the new resources were needed to fill a gap.

“Today’s teachers work so hard, but they are extremely time – poor, with many competing demands. This can lead to teachers preparing for what their students need to know, rather than designing how students will best learn,” Professor Beazley said.

Launching the new toolboxes at Hughes Primary School in Canberra, federal Education Minister Jason Clare said the resources were designed to take the load off teachers and engage students and help them to fall in love with science and maths.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/physics-students-in-catastrophic-decline-in-senior-high-school/news-story/3d9960b5047b9419057ab99c3e28b7df

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Who is Matt Kean and what is the Climate Change Authority?

He has drunk deep of the Kool-aid

The federal Labor government has appointed prominent New South Wales Liberal Matt Kean as the new chair of the Climate Change Authority.

Here’s a short explainer on Kean and the agency he will chair.

Who is Matt Kean?

Kean, 42, had been a Liberal MP in the NSW parliament until announcing his resignation last week. He gave his valedictory speech to parliament on Friday.

Kean entered politics in the 2011 landslide as the member for Hornsby, a seat in northern Sydney. His first major appointment was as minister for innovation and better regulation in 2017, a role that suited his education, including gaining a graduate diploma from the Institute of Chartered Accountants and his time at consultants PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

He found his calling and gained a higher profile after the 2019 state election when he became energy and environment minister. As head of the Liberal’s moderate faction, and being close to then-premier Gladys Berejiklian, Kean was able to implement far-reaching changes – particularly in the energy sector – that had eluded similarly inclined moderate Liberal ministers.

He secured cross-party support for an ambitious road map to drive renewables into the grid in NSW – a state that had been slow to decarbonise – and a large expansion of national parks.

Increasingly alarmed at the scale of the 2019-20 black summer bushfires, Kean spoke out against the lack of climate action including by his federal counterparts in the Morrison government. Morrison bristled in response that “most of the federal cabinet wouldn’t even know who Matt Kean was” – helping to boost Kean’s national profile.

When Berejiklian resigned following revelations the state’s corruption commission was investigating whether she had been involved in “a breach of public trust”, Kean was elevated to treasurer and deputy Liberal leader under Dominic Perrottet. After the March 2023 election ended the Coalition’s 12 years in office, Kean took a much less publicised role as shadow health minister.

Why did Kean leave politics now?

Kean had made no secret of his wider ambitions – including a potential tilt at federal politics.

He could have chosen to challenge sitting Liberal MP Paul Fletcher for pre-selection in the federal seat of Bradfield, for example, arguing his track record on tackling climate action would help counter any threat posed by an independent teal candidate.

However, Kean’s climate stance would have put him at odds with the federal opposition, not least its plans to build nuclear power plants at seven sites across Australia.

Close observers have noted Kean’s resignation as a Liberal MP came just a day before that policy was announced. It also came not long after Peter Dutton announced a federal Coalition government would ditch Australia’s 2030 emissions target under the Paris climate agreement.

“My grandparents’ generation fought for freedom in the second world war,” Kean said in his valedictory speech. “My parents’ generation saw off the threat of communism during the cold war.

“It is incumbent upon our generation to take decisive and responsible action on climate change. It is the biggest challenge that will face our society and economy in our lifetime.”

Speaking on Monday after his new role as the chair of the Climate Change Authority was announced, Kean noted he had previously asked his state’s chief scientist, Prof Hugh Durrant-Whyte, to examine nuclear’s prospects. (Durrant-Whyte reiterated the points here last week.)

Standing alongside the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and the federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, in Canberra, Kean said nuclear energy didn’t make economic sense. “I did not want to bankrupt the state and I did not want to put those huge costs on to families.”

What is the Climate Change Authority?
The authority was set up by the Gillard Labor government in 2012 to provide independent advice on what Australia’s carbon emissions reduction targets should be.

The Abbott government sought to scrap the authority – and other emissions-reducing bodies such as the Clean Energy Finance Corporation – but was stymied by the Senate.

However, the Coalition made it clear the authority’s advice wasn’t welcomed, with one after another of the authority’s board members resigning, including former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser.

Since April 2021, the authority has been chaired by Grant King, a former managing director of Origin Energy for 16 years. During that time, Origin expanded rapidly, particularly in coal seam gas for export.

King, though, has held other roles, including chairing CWP Renewables, and Kean too may take up roles in clean energy. King’s term was scheduled to run until April next year but Bowen said the current chair had sought to leave the role early.

The authority reviews Australia’s national greenhouse gas reporting and the safeguard mechanism aimed at forcing industry to cut carbon emissions over time. It can also order its own research or act on requests for analysis from the government.

Perhaps as a signal to how Kean will view his new role as authority chair, he had this to say in his valedictory speech:

“For critics who complain of an economic and financial cost of acting on climate change, I say as treasurer I saw the catastrophic cost of not acting—the cost of rebuilding infrastructure, towns, lives and livelihoods. There is no comparison.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/24/who-is-matt-kean-climate-change-authority-former-liberal-mp