Monday, July 15, 2024



Australian Territory drops more details from its COVID-19 death reports

The history of Covid is one coverup after another

ACT Health has decided to stop sharing the age ranges of COVID deaths in a move to match the reporting of other notifiable diseases.

The change comes after the Health Directorate's weekly report revealed a patient in his 40s had died, making him the youngest-COVID related death this year. ACT Health did not report whether the man was immunocompromised or had any comorbidities due to patient privacy.

Officials were notified of his death between June 21 and 27, but said he did not die during this period. They reported his age range and sex in the weekly respiratory surveillance report along with three other COVID-related deaths - a woman in her 80s and two women in their 90s. The deaths were reported last month, a period which recorded the highest monthly COVID activity this year with 844 PCR-confirmed infections.

In the following weekly report, from June 28 to July 4, ACT Health stated two people had died but did not include their age range like it had done in reports published since March 2023. ACT Health was contacted for comment as the report did not state a reason for the lack of age-related information.

A spokesperson told The Canberra Times the Health Directorate was following a new process and the change in reporting aligned "more closely" with the reporting of other notifiable diseases. Influenza and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are examples of other notifiable respiratory diseases.

"ACT Health regularly reviews and updates public reporting processes," they said. "[The change] is consistent with the approach taken nationally and in the majority of other jurisdictions. ACT Health does not publicly report death age range or sex information for any other notifiable conditions."

NSW Health stopped including ages and sexes of COVID-related deaths in May 2023 while Victoria's Department of Health still included age ranges in weekly reports.

Although the World Health Organization continues to classify COVID-19 as a global pandemic, Australia's chief medical officer Professor Paul Kelly declared it was no longer of national significance in October last year. He said it was still "a serious threat" but Australia would manage COVID like other common communicable diseases by focusing on prevention, reducing spread, serious cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

The ACT Health spokesperson said the age and sex of all COVID-19-related deaths were reported, especially during the declared public health emergency, on social media. They said social media updates stopped from March 23 last year because the structure and content of weekly COVID reports were updated as part of "transitional reporting changes".

"These changes reflected the ACT government's transition to managing COVID like other notifiable conditions, and a focus on carefully monitoring the severity of illness and the impact on the health system, rather than overall case numbers," the spokesperson said.

About 200 infections and an estimated eight deaths were reported this month, as of July 12. Before the death of the man in his 40s, the last COVID-related death of a patient under 50 years old reported to ACT Health was in January 2023, the spokesperson said in a statement.

Professor Peter Collignon at the ANU Medical School said not reporting age-related information about COVID deaths "distorted" people's view of the disease.

He said the majority of deaths from COVID and the flu were people over 80 years old with underlying conditions but said it was useful to know when younger people died. He said it would improve public awareness of the risk to age groups.

The infectious diseases expert believed "balanced" public health reporting would share when young people were affected by these diseases, with context. He said governments should report death data annually at the least.

"When [someone young] dies you run the risk of overemphasising their youth, but by the same token, you've got to put a human face on this, and the rare exceptions ... make it real," Professor Collignon said. "I think it's a mistake not to report the ranges."

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There's been another rise in homeschooling in Canberra

Homeschooling continues to grow in popularity with the latest ACT Schools Census showing a 6.5 per cent increase in the amount of students being taught outside traditional schools.

In the year to February 2024, the amount of students being homeschooled increased to 495. In the same period, private school enrolments increased by 2.1 per cent and public school enrolments fell by 0.6 per cent.

An Education Directorate spokesman said the numbers in the ACT reflected nationwide trends, with many jurisdictions experiencing larger increases in homeschooling numbers.

"Families have the choice to enrol in alternative educational pathways outside public/non-public schools," the spokesman said.

"The increased level of enrolment in home education may be attributed to both increased awareness of alternative pathways, as well as ongoing impacts that arose from the pandemic."

Queensland University of Technology education researcher Dr Rebecca English said the ACT's regulatory environment was kind to parents seeking homeschooling options. "It's much easier to homeschool in ACT than NSW or Queensland. Registration is geared towards parents' needs," she said.

"In the ACT because of the way the regulators have worked with advocates it's a really positive environment for homeschooling."

In her home state, by contrast, advocates assume between 50 to 80 per cent of homeschooled children may not be registered.

"[In Queensland] it's just a bit of a blind spot. The government doesn't have a strong relationship with the community."

Dr English said homeschooling could often be a positive option for students. "I think the research shows us that it is at worst benign and at best a better option than traditional schooling, in terms of students' reports of satisfaction with their education and civic engagement," she said, noting that much of the research comes from the United States.

Sydney Home Education Network president Vivienne Fox said conditions for homeschooling in the ACT are hugely favourable.

"The ACT already allows for kids to do part-time homeschooling. The regulatory system is the best in the whole country," she said.

Ms Fox, who homeschooled her five children and has worked with various homeschooling organisations, said the option was growing in popularity even before COVID-19.

"During COVID it got a kick in the pants, so many people got the opportunity to see what their kids were really doing at school," she said.

"I thought schools would become more flexible and there would be more recognition of the value of a tailored form of education but NSW hasn't improved at all in that way.

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Setka self-destructs

Welcome news.

Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke says “everything is on the table,” after the sudden resignation of construction union boss John Setka amid allegations of misconduct.

The Victorian state secretary resigned from the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) following 12 years in the top job on Friday, with immediate effect.

It followed allegations in Nine newspapers he had allowed bikies and members of organised crime to act as union delegates, with instances occurring at government-funded projects.

Speaking on ABC’s Insiders, Mr Burke said the alleged actions were “completely unacceptable” and if necessary, he would deregister the CFMEU or appoint administrators to certain branches.

“In the advice I sought from the department, I want to make clear: everything is on the table,” he said.

Mr Burke said he had sought information on the powers he has as the minister. Multiple agencies will also be investigating the claims, including the Fair Work Ombudsman, the Australian Federal Police and state police organisations.

“When I think of union delegates, I think of someone who will serve you on a check-out at Woolworths or Coles, work as a cleaner in a major centre, a highly trained colleague … to see any criminal element, is not just a problem, but completely unacceptable,” he added.

Mr Burke said he had “put the union absolutely on notice,” however said he had no interest in halting infrastructure projects where the alleged actions had occurred.

“I don’t think any has interest in that,” he said.

“I want to make sure that we’re able to deliver a situation where workers are well paid and companies are profitable, taxpayers get value for money and the infrastructure we need is built.”

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The big four bank boss who says there’s more room for risk

ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott says cautious lending standards are taking a disproportionate toll on younger generations, arguing banks should be allowed to take more risk in their loans to property developers and first home buyers.

ANZ’s largely affluent customer base has mostly muddled through the high-interest rate environment, but Elliott is attuned to the need to make housing more affordable as cost-of-living pressures squeeze many, especially outside the main banks.

If it were up to him, existing regulations would allow banks to take on more risk. But he also acknowledges major banks could rethink their risk appetite within existing bounds. “We have to be more open-minded,” he says.

As house prices grind higher, Elliot is concerned increasing swaths of Australians and New Zealanders are being locked out of the financial system and the housing market.

Speaking in the bank’s head office in Melbourne last week, Elliott argued there’s a case to be made for letting banks take more risk – both in their lending to big business clients, as well as first home buyers.

“If we restrict credit, it does come at a cost,” he says. “Certain parts of the community pay a higher price than others, and one of them is the younger cohort, particularly those who have an aspiration to buy a home.”

The comments on housing and risk – a long-running theme for Elliott – came as the bank also sought to respond to allegations of cultural problems in its markets division.

On Thursday, in an internal note to staff, Elliott said the allegations reported in the media were not new and that the bank was treating them with “utmost seriousness”, including engaging external legal counsel to assist in its investigations.

Elliott flags that one area where the bank could allow more risk is in its institutional bank, where it lends to some of the country’s biggest businesses, therefore having a role in the supply side of housing.

Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) chairman John Lonsdale last month said this was not the time to wind back the clock on banking regulation. But at the same time, Lonsdale also said there was scope for banks to increase their own risk appetite.

‘Certain parts of the community pay a higher price than others, and one of them is the younger cohort, particularly those who have an aspiration to buy a home.’

Elliott says the bank could lend money for more affordable housing models such as “build to rent to buy” (BtRtB), where a community housing provider is the developer for a property, charging lower-than-market rent until the tenant has saved enough for a deposit to buy the property they are renting.

UNSW housing research professor Hal Pawson says it’s a model that helps those who earn below a certain income level to save for a deposit through not only lower rent, but also a longer-term contract that eliminates the constant moves often required in the private market.

“The BtRtB model seeks to help potential first home buyers who might otherwise be locked out of the market to transition over a period to full homeownership,” he says.

That model also can reduce the cost of building houses because of the lower financing costs and tax benefits that can be given to not-for-profit community housing developers.

Elliott says the bank is already taking a closer look at this model.

“We can help [builders] drive down the cost of construction, and the way we do that is by taking more risk and being prepared to take different risk,” he says.

This modified risk appetite could also apply to how the bank assesses home loan applicants, Elliott says, although he is wary of acting only on the demand-side, which could worsen housing affordability.

“We have to be thoughtful about how we assess risk for first-home buyers,” he says, noting the current standards are a result of both regulation and prudent thinking by banks.

“If you came into the bank, or any bank, and decided to borrow money, we would look at your income today and assume you never get a pay rise for 30 years, which is kind of a ridiculous assumption,” he says. “We make all sorts of assumptions about your current position that probably aren’t terribly relevant, or terribly true.”

As an example, Elliott says there’s a question around whether banks should be more generous in their assumptions of people’s income and factor in future increases.

But he also thinks there could be a change to the serviceability buffer, a stress test required by APRA that adds a 3 percentage point “buffer” to the rate of a loan to determine eligibility.

Last year, Elliott backed the 3 per cent buffer, saying it “feels about right”. But his views have since changed.

“I’m not sure [the serviceability buffer] makes sense today, given where interest rates are today,” he says. “You would imagine as rates rise, the buffer would come down, and as rates lower, the buffer would go up. I think 3 per cent is probably a bit burdensome at the moment. A number more like two is probably more reasonable.”

Elliott is under no illusion that such a tweak would bring about significant change: “But for some, particularly first home buyers, I think it would make a difference, and I think that’s a reasonable risk to take.”

“Our [retail and small business] customers have definitely increased their savings buffers, which is staggering, actually,” he says. “The big end of town in general is doing really well so we’re seeing remarkably low stress. Where the stress is, is probably more in the middle market, so more private and domestic companies. The obvious ones have been in construction, and the other area is discretionary retail.”

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All my main blogs below:

http://jonjayray.com/covidwatch.html (COVID WATCH)

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM)

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com (TONGUE-TIED)

https://immigwatch.blogspot.com (IMMIGRATION WATCH)

http://jonjayray.com/short/short.html (Subject index to my blog posts)

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